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As I keep saying, if there is one theme for me in 2018, it is “bonds are screwed.” I’ve been harping on this to my beloved PLUS subscribers for a while. Finally I think we’ve got a situation that’ll bludgeon Yellen (although, wisely, she is in the happy opportunity of fleeing her post before the proverbial SHTF). Here’s where we are at:
The High-Yield Corporate Bonds ETF (HYG) is in jeopardy at major resistance.
The monthly chart below shows that price is facing double resistance at the confluence of a 60% Fibonacci retracement level at 89.29 and the upper edge of a large triangle formation (both of which began forming during the 2007/08 financial crisis to the 2009 lows).
Major support sits below at the confluence of the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at 83.98 and the triangle apex around 83.30.
The momentum indicator has dropped below the zero level on this timeframe, hinting of more weakness to come, as has been the case, historically. (more…)
I find the previous two monthly charts of USD and Euro to be of such great interest that they could well be assigned the designation of Amigo #4. But that would screw up a perfectly good (and goofy) theme.
I could shoe horn them in as the 4th Horseman (thought I forgot about this theme, did you?) but the 4th rider was to be the Gold/Silver Ratio (GSR). We’ll see on that, because the GSR has been a dysfunctional indicator for so long now.* USD & Euro may yet be the 4th Horseman of the Apocalypse to help bring on the pain after the happy go lucky goofballs above finish up. (more…)
