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As symbolized by the 3 Amigos, the macro backdrop is riding on to its destiny. That forward destiny is a top in stocks vs. gold (Amigo 1), a rise in long-term interest rates to potential if not probable limits (Amigo 2) and an end to the yield curve’s flattening trend (Amigo 3).
When our zany friends complete the journey, big changes are likely in the macro markets.
Let’s take a checkup on each Amigo and consider some implications as well. (more…)
We have been long the ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT) — the inverse, double-levered, longer-term T-bond ETF — in our MPTrader Model Portolio, expecting a downturn in T-bond prices in conjunction with a generational opportunity to capture the upturn in yield and interest rates after a 35-year bear market.
Yes, “the turn” has become a marathon, certainly not a sprint. However, increasingly my big-picture technical chart set-up argues strongly that yield will inexorably grind higher towards significant bullish catalysts that will propel both yield and the TBT higher in the months ahead.
With the Fed making its last announcement of 2017 tomorrow (and Yellen making her last press conference as a Fed member), it should be an interesting Wednesday. I thought I’d point out that bonds, by way of TLT, might be in the throes of a fairly large head and shoulders pattern. What’s required here is for TLT to stay beneath that green tinted zone I’ve drawn (and, ultimately, to break the lower horizontal line).
