These ratio (or pair, if you prefer) charts are all saying the same thing: equities are about to fall, or precious metals are about to rise, or both. Let’s keep our eyes open.
Pair-o-dise
Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
Just the BTC MAs
For the sake of simplicity, here is Bitcoin with the trio of exponential moving averages. I have hidden the drawn objects and even the price bars, just to make it austere and pristine.
Take a wild guess where you think crypto is heading long-term.
TA on the HUI Gold Bugs
The HUI Gold Bugs index is well along in its correction
In the precious metals, like other markets, I am usually focused on market internals, especially by way of ratio charts. I am into other aspects, especially about the macro environment in which a given sector or market exists. Indeed, the ratio and ‘internals’ charting helps define the top-down macro.
Preamble aside, I began as a regular chart guy. I learned about bull and bear flags, volume considerations, Heads & Shoulders, trend analysis (long ago did I learn that trend “lines” are not as important as TAs like to believe; it’s other trend measures like moving average trends and higher/lower highs/lows that matter), overbought/sold, support/resistance and so on.
(more…)Another Inflection Point Here
In my post on Wednesday I was looking at the H&S patterns that had broken down on SPX, QQQ and DIA and saying that, for a variety of reasons I explained then, I didn’t think any of those H&S patterns were likely to reach their targets, and would likely instead fail into retests of their all time highs. Since then we have seen the start of rally I expected and equity indices have reached another inflection point where they can either break up towards retests of the all time highs, or fail down into those H&S targets.
On DIA the H&S failed this morning on the break back over the H&S right shoulder, and that now has a target at a retest of the all time high, but the big dogs here are SPX and QQQ, so I’ll mainly be looking at those today.
(more…)Topping Really Is A Process
In my post on 20th May I was looking at the four high quality topping patterns forming on SPX, QQQ, DIA and IWM. As is often the case these didn’t deliver and the indices rejected back into higher highs. We are now looking at a new candidate high forming here but for a number of reasons these highs tend to take a while to form. This one does not look ready yet for much more downside unless there is some really bad news today.
I watch the historical stats for each day carefully as they often deliver, and last week and this week have been unusual for two reasons. Firstly every day has had a significant bullish or bearish lean, which is rare, as the majority of trading days in any year lean neutral. Secondly, the historical lean towards a red or green close has delivered every day since the start of last week, and I’m thinking the odds are decent that will continue to be the case into the end of this week.
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