Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Interim Disinflationary Phase

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The anticipated disinflationary phase is finally here

Excerpted from this week’s edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 921:

Macro

A hybrid “macro/sector fundamental” for gold stocks is the Gold/RINF (inflation expectations) ratio. HUI (yellow) leveraged the Gold/RINF ratio as it should have, during the 2025 rally.

Here we again pound the table on this: Gold miners leverage gold’s counter-cyclicality and the disinflationary winds that blow during a counter-cycle (with gold rising vs. mining cost inputs and inflation signals). Since modern economies are built on inflationary policy, the miners NEGATIVELY leverage cyclical inflation. As always, I would tune out anyone insisting you buy gold stocks for inflation protection. They are out there.

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Precious Metals R/R Positive

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Precious metals risk/reward now positive as the Gold/SPX Ratio declines to target

Risk in gold, the miners and especially silver was nosebleed high back in January. So much so that I added puts on SLV (half expecting to get hammered) literally the day before the silver price imploded. Ah, luck. Gotta have it once in a while.

From the start of 2026, we (NFTRH and its clients) have been well aware of first the risk, and then the projected “multi-month” correction that tagged on to that risk. We have done the work to be positioned appropriately. But now, with the Semiconductor mania (I’ve released my final two positions, ASML and ALAB) in full swing, Semi (left) is gold (right) circa January 2026.

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