Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Interim Disinflationary Phase

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The anticipated disinflationary phase is finally here

Excerpted from this week’s edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 921:

Macro

A hybrid “macro/sector fundamental” for gold stocks is the Gold/RINF (inflation expectations) ratio. HUI (yellow) leveraged the Gold/RINF ratio as it should have, during the 2025 rally.

Here we again pound the table on this: Gold miners leverage gold’s counter-cyclicality and the disinflationary winds that blow during a counter-cycle (with gold rising vs. mining cost inputs and inflation signals). Since modern economies are built on inflationary policy, the miners NEGATIVELY leverage cyclical inflation. As always, I would tune out anyone insisting you buy gold stocks for inflation protection. They are out there.

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Precious Metals R/R Positive

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Precious metals risk/reward now positive as the Gold/SPX Ratio declines to target

Risk in gold, the miners and especially silver was nosebleed high back in January. So much so that I added puts on SLV (half expecting to get hammered) literally the day before the silver price imploded. Ah, luck. Gotta have it once in a while.

From the start of 2026, we (NFTRH and its clients) have been well aware of first the risk, and then the projected “multi-month” correction that tagged on to that risk. We have done the work to be positioned appropriately. But now, with the Semiconductor mania (I’ve released my final two positions, ASML and ALAB) in full swing, Semi (left) is gold (right) circa January 2026.

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A ‘Goldilocks Market’ Arrives

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Post-FOMC, a ‘Goldilocks market’ is developing and an unbiased view is called for

Markets were apparently surprised by the hawkishness of the maiden voyage of the Warsh FOMC. Pre-FOMC we noted the following (per NFTRH 919 on June 14th):

Text discussing the upcoming FOMC meeting, current funds rate expectations, and projections for interest rate changes.

Warsh was even firmer than anticipated. But the net result is the same. The new Fed head indicates he is serious about inflation, and with the public’s inflation expectations recently ramping that is not a surprise. CME Group was surprised as usual but immediately got busy pulling in its rate hike expectations after FOMC.

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TA on the HUI Gold Bugs

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The HUI Gold Bugs index is well along in its correction

In the precious metals, like other markets, I am usually focused on market internals, especially by way of ratio charts. I am into other aspects, especially about the macro environment in which a given sector or market exists. Indeed, the ratio and ‘internals’ charting helps define the top-down macro.

Preamble aside, I began as a regular chart guy. I learned about bull and bear flags, volume considerations, Heads & Shoulders, trend analysis (long ago did I learn that trend “lines” are not as important as TAs like to believe; it’s other trend measures like moving average trends and higher/lower highs/lows that matter), overbought/sold, support/resistance and so on.

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Cannabis Approaches Breakout

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The US Cannabis Industry, as represented by the ETF, MSOS, is quietly approaching key resistance to a base breakout

The US Cannabis industry, and in particular, the multi-state operators (MSO) are sneaking toward a key breakout point in the volatile rally that has ensued since the Trump administration put out this executive order in December:

Increasing Medical Marijuana and Cannabidiol Research

Here is the sector ETF, MSOS, contemplating a would-be breakout, as the sector looks toward a potential expansion of rescheduling from Schedule 1 to 3.

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