Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Amigo #2 (10yr Yield) Nears Target, ‘Inflation Trade’ Failing

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Over and over again I’ve been making goofy headlines about the Amigos, the 3 macro riders who will reach (or abort) their respective destinations, at which point the macro is subject to change. The latest update was yesterday with a daily chart view.

Just look at them, the SPX vs. Gold Amigo, the 10yr & 30yr Yield Amigo and the Yield Curve Amigo. So happy-go-lucky while they ride. But #2, the one in the middle, looks like he’s bracing for something.

So okay, I played swami and nailed the Payrolls and Average Hourly Earnings numbers on the head in this post from yesterday. We all get lucky here in the casino. Here is the post that the estimates came from the day before the Payrolls release. (more…)

10-Year Treasury Yields on the Rise

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The following two monthly charts show that 10-year Treasury Yields ($TNX) are on the rise.

The first chart shows that it has popped above the upper edge of a very long-term downtrend channel and is headed for near-term major resistance at 30.00.

The second one shows that price has broken above a -1 standard deviation level of a long-term downtrending regression channel.

Whether or not 30.00, if reached, would have any real negative impact on equities, may be looked at in context as to where it was at its height in 2007 (just prior to the financial crisis) and the economic conditions in play at that time, compared with current conditions (as well as the financial soundness of the major banks). (more…)