Today was a pretty interesting one. One bit of bleakness, in spite of the dip on the Dow, was that we’ve got a set of higher highs and higher lows, as I’ve illustrated below with the arrows. I’m hoping this is a one-hit wonder and not a trend change, but – – – them’s the facts.
Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
Stumbling Down the Stairs
I can hardly remember the last time I woke up to a red NQ, red ES, and red ZB (bonds). I think it was about thirteen or fourteen years ago. But it’s a delight to hold, and of course I’m grateful to the obvious impetus behind this move.
In particular, the weakness in bonds is key (as you well know by now). Here’s the close-up view, and as I’m typing this, bonds are down about six-tenths of a percent.
Still Only 1 of 3 Macro Amigos to Destination
It’s the happy-go-lucky 3 Amigos (in play since we began this goofy metaphor last fall), which would signal macro changes to come. When you are talking about the macro however, things move slowly and to date, only one of our riders has made it to his destination.
To review, they are Amigos 1-3, Chevy, Steve, and Martin.
- Stocks vs. Gold
- 10yr & 30yr Yields
- The 10yr-2yr Yield Curve
Below we’ll review a daily (short-term) and monthly (long-term) chart of each to check the status.
Amigo #1: Stocks vs. Gold
We noted Amigo #1’s eyes closed as stocks vs. gold took a big plunge in early February and again in March. This has actually set a lower highs, lower lows downtrend in 2018, and the swings have been very dynamic. Right now we are on an up swing and if you are a gold bug and this ratio rises above the March high please prepare to take caution, as the macro would be moving against you, at least relative to risk ‘on’ assets. But for now the lower highs and lower lows daily trend is intact. (more…)
Five Months Of Nothin’
Good morning, Slopers, and greetings from oh-so-dark Palo Alto. My dogs gaze at me longingly for their walk, so I’ll just send this out and get the day rolling.
Before I begin, let me say a few of you prefer to jump right into the blog posts (a la the old Slope), so I have a suggestion: bookmark this URL as your Slope page: https://dev.slopeofhope.com/page/slope-blog.html – and that’ll take you right to the blog with the most recent at top.
Looking at the ES, it’s interesting that over a period of five months, we have gone…………….nowhere. Sure, there’s been volatility (albeit ever-diminishing) and about a 350 point range, but just look at that arrow. With all the mayhem that’s been going on, the S&P was a little under 2700 in mid-December and it’s a little under 2700 right now. It’s getting dull again!
