Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Night Shift

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Good evening, everyone……….

Me and my fellas are hard at work (it’s been continuous since Friday) working on optimization, uptime, and reliability. I have probably accrued a dozen posts to write about the insanity we’ve been going through. It reminds me the old days at Prophet. You might as well put me in a trench with grenades going off around me, because that’s what it feels like, but I sure am glad to have my colleagues at my side. And we are making some GREAT strides this evening.

Out of the corner of one eye I’m watching the night time markets, and of profound interest to me is bonds, whose failed bullish breakout is mesmerizing. It’s not like there’s a dramatic plunge – about one third of a percent as I’m typing this – but an ultimate break of 141’13 on that horizontal would be spectacular to behold.

ZBDD

10-Year Yield: From A 35-Year Bear Market To A Generational Bull Market

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From Mike Paulenoff: In early March, 10-year yield was circling 2.87%. Now it is circling 3.00% for the first time in 4 years. The increase is probably shocking to many analysts and investors. Neither economic nor inflation data provide adequate justification for yield to be higher than it was two months ago. But there are times when the contradicting longer-term technical set-up should be heeded, even when the trend lacks strong support from lagging tabular data.

4 29 18 Monthly YIELD GIF

In scanning the past few months of U.S. economic data – such as Retail Sales, New Home Sales, Personal Spending, Consumer Prices, Non-farm Payrolls – what jumps out is the variability of the data. Most of these data series reflect a zig-zag pattern that belies a consistently strong directional economic impulse.

On April 27th, investors received their first look at the advance estimate of Q1, 2018 GDP, which came in at 2.3% compared with consensus estimates of 1.8% to 2.0%. More surprising, perhaps, was the subdued Q1 Price Index at 2.0% versus estimates of 2.4%, although the inflation gauge did remain at the Fed’s 2% target. (more…)

The Fed May Not Be Raising Rates In The Second Half Of 2018

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Written by Elliott Wave Trader: For those that have followed the long-term bond market, you have likely seen many analysts attempting to call the top to the market.  And, many have even tried multiple times.  However, through the years, bonds continued to chug higher and high.

On June 27th, 2016, we sent out a major alert to our members at Elliottwavetrader.net entitled “Beware of Bonds Blowing Up.”  Yes, we took our turn in attempting to call a top to the bond market.  But, a little over a week later, the bond market struck its highs.  Since that time, TLT has dropped almost 20%.

Since Xenia Taoubina began providing her bond analysis to our members at Elliottwavetrader.net two years ago, her view has been that TLT was going to strike a significant high in 2016, and set up a large decline off that high. That’s exactly what we saw, followed by a nearly two year long decline in the price of bonds (rise in yields). (more…)

SPX Drops Below Major Support As 10-Yr Yields Tags 3%

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I last wrote about the S&P 500 Index on April 19 and also included a couple of updates later that day.

I mentioned that its latest rally that tagged 2700 was weak and that the intraday action that day was hinting that it could be a pivot point where we’d see price either spike back up to 2700 or plunge down to 2650, or lower.

As at 1:30 pm ET today (Tuesday) the SPX has plunged below 2650 as the 10-Yr Treasury Yields tagged 3%, as shown on the following daily chart. (more…)