Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
Next Bond Breakpoint
I was a bit concerned on Friday night when Kim Jong Un announced peace and love for all humanity, but equities aren’t exactly blowing through the roof. In fact, the overnight session started with a big pop higher and was red on both the ES and NQ before the open. So as I speculated, it seems war is bullish and peace is bearish.
For now, however, as I’m typing this, ES and NQ are green again, with the S&P 500 up about one-third of a single percentage point. More important to me is bonds, which are down slightly (about one-fifth of a point……….yeah, not exactly a thrilling day here):
The Big Bond Short
It has been heartening this week to see that bonds are, at long last, started to weaken again. Looking at the intraday chart, you can see the breakdown, particularly in the form of lower highs.
Experts as Contrary Indicators (Bonds Edition)
I want to
begin this post by again noting publicly that feel like I clowned myself yesterday in my own trading and in my lack of attention to the market at a critical point (couldn’t really be helped, but it’s the results that matter). Despite a market doing generally as expected, I was not really prepared. My macro views often prove right on while my own execution can shall we say, vary. It’s why I tell NFTRH subscribers or anyone considering the service it is best to follow the analysis, not what some faulty trader is doing at any given time.
The reason for the paragraph above is balance for the paragraphs below, in which we drive home once again the folly of listening to experts (at least the experts the media shove in your face at ill-timed junctures). I had a subscriber leave NFTRH in mid-2016 (he’s back and we’ve had a friendly review of that situation) in part because I was doggedly bearish gold and bullish the Semiconductors, which was exactly opposite to the stance of a technology expert, whose service he also subscribed to. It made me sad (for both of us) to have stuck to my convictions, but lost a subscriber while turning out to be right in my view. (more…)
