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Holy MOSES what a boring day! As I’m typing this, the ES is up .12% and the NQ is down .12%. Average ’em out, and you get…….a Saturday trading session. So I’ll just put up the good ol’ TLT chart, which is utterly core to my options portfolio (two positions – TLT and XLU January 2019 puts).
As shown below, it broken its trendline ages ago, and it’s about 90% done with what could be (if complete) one of the greatest topping patterns ever.
Since early last week, it has been heartening to see bonds resume their downward trek. Not only has the progress lower been steady, but the “lower highs” are getting weaker each time, not even mustering a tag of their resistance trendline anymore. My TLT and XLU puts are counting on a long-term erosion. I also continue to hold the view that rising interest rates will sink real estate prices (Palo Alto notwithstanding).
As I said this morning:
As this quiet Memorial Day weekend wraps up, I thought I’d share a couple of interest rate charts shared by a thoughtful fellow Sloper. The resistance is pretty stiff. I’m crossing my fingers that it breaks to the upside, of course, as I’m definitely in the interest rate bull camp. Looking at the ZB this long weekend, interest rates are clearly continue to weaken!
Sooooooooo……….I guess the Nobel Prize is going to wait, eh?
Anyway, it’s nice to wake up to a morning with so much red on the screen. The one huge exception is bonds, which are up over half a percent. I’m not worried, though. It’s all following a pattern. You can see the “big tops” (with little exploration zones, in grey) followed by a “V” shaped drop and retest. That’s all we are doing right now. We are in retest mode. I’m going to increase my January 2019 TLT puts this morning.
