Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Uncle Buck and One Lonely Bull (by Gary)

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Pssst… come 'ere. Did you hear the one about the guy who's still
bullish the US dollar? Yes, he actually exists. No no, I am not
including the perpetually dollar bullish Prechter and Hochberg. They
are a given.

But aside from them, I heard a rumor that this
other guy actually exists. Fear not however Hope '09 participants; what
are the odds that this lone guy would be right against an entire
financial world on the other side of that trade?

Everybody from
government to monetary officials are stacked against the USD. Wall
Street and the financial establishment remain on the other side of this
lucrative trade as they pitch their wares to the traumatized public.
The gold bugs who think rising copper and oil is good for the gold
sector? They're on board and indeed, leading the charge. So why worry
about a dollar rebound? 

Well, the dollar has done some terrible
technical work on the big picture, which certainly informs NFTRH's view
for 2010, but in the short term all I see is what could be interpreted
as a break from a falling wedge (not shown on this chart that is
already too busy), a 3rd day above the SMA 50 (for the first time on
this systematic and grinding decline), RSI and MACD looking good and a
technical target up there at around the SMA 200.

Usd

If we are to
get a #2 leg in a mini cyclical bull (in hope), the dollar will first
rise and correct this mess, and that one lonely bull would be king of
the world for a short while on a short covering rally in USD. If not,
AGAIG '09 (as good as it gets) will continue to terminus and our
protagonist of one will join the rest of the world in staring down Bob
Prechter.  —Gary

So What Do You Do?

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What does one do when he, as a trader, feels like nothing is working right? With the market reaching new highs on a daily basis, and with me so bearishly tilted, this is certainly a question I'm facing a lot.

It's hard enough addressing such a question in private. But since I've been doing this very publicly, it's far more emotionally challenging. It's especially hard since some of the nastiest, most hateful creeps on the planet get a real charge out of seeing someone like me struggle. Most people would just quit blogging if they got some of the emails I got.

But I'm not the sort who, as the saying goes, lets the terrorists win. So – back to my question – what does one do at a time like this? Here are some possibilities for someone bearish like me right now:

Action 1: Go entirely into cash

Advantage: Risk goes to basically zero. Emotional anguish ceases. No more risk of getting squeezed.

Disadvantages: Profit potential goes to zero.

Action 2: Buy stocks and increase long exposure

Advantage: Attenuate damage to portfolio in case of continued push higher.

Disadvantages: Entry is at high price – upside potential is questionable.

Action 3: Wait it out

Advantage: Most closely follows trading plan (after all, a "plan" is meant to be executed); just let the stops do their work. Profit potential still intact.

Disadvantages: Exposes you to continued losses.

Action 4: Completely switch – cover all shorts and go long

Advantage: Fully participate in any continued push higher.

Disadvantages: Very expensive to cover shorts at these levels (and likewise potentially expense prices on long positions)

Action 5: Trim Back

Advantage: Reduces risk if market keeps going higher

Disadvantages: Also reduces potential profit potential is stocks go down

I'm doing a combination of "2", "3", and "5". That is……

  1. Earlier today, I bought the fifteen securities I mentioned in my earlier post.
  2. I'm letting my stops do the work (and, make no mistake, they're doing their work; I've been boinked out of something like 20 positions).
  3. I have, in some cases, trimmed back my position (such as with XLU)

Today stinks – no doubt about it – just like most of the past two weeks have stunk. But I'm not the quitting type.

Victory and Defeat

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After I did my woeful post earlier this morning, tagging it with a "Defeat" category, I decided to do a little experiment.

I used the category cloud to see all the posts I had done with a Victory, then I looked at all the ones that were marked as Defeat. I've put a chart of the S&P below with the times that I did a "defeat" post marked in yellow and the time I did a "Victory" post marked in green.

1110-VICdeaf

Notice a trend here? When I'm feeling on top of the world, the trend changes against me; and when I'm feeling dejected, I should short like mad.

I guess the Emotional Awareness note on my rules page is quite true.

Fractal Hunting at a Crossroad (by nummy)

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Folks, sorry about the color scheme in some of my charts.  I am partially colorblind in one eye (have trouble seeing green … no pun intended) so that is why my bars are white or black.  Anyway, I'd like to discuss my trader psychology of the moment.  At the end of a fairly successful week, I find myself in cash because of my indecision on what's next.  It feels like we are at a crossroads here.  We've been offered another chance to decide between the red pill and the blue pill (for those unfamiliar with the Matrix reference, red pill = reality, blue pill = la-la land).

2009-10-30-TOS_CHARTS_DX_EW1

So far, my /DX EW counts have been agreeing fairly well with the recent bottoming action in /DX implying further downside in equities and (some) commodities.  /DX has broken an ending diagonal triangle and seems to be breaking an 8-month (red) channel … and it has done this with volume.  I have been waiting months for this and this recent action in the USD supports the case for markets taking the red pill and coming back down to reality (albeit possibly slowly).

Being short equities, short (some) commodities, and long the USD is a contrary position to the superfluous bullishness of the past 8 months.  However, the contrarian to my contrarian is screaming at me … telling me the powers that be will keep knocking the red pill out of our hands everytime we try and take it and will force feed us the blue pill again.  This is what I think more blue pill action may look like in SPX.

2009-10-30-TOS_CHARTS_SPX

I went fractal hunting for a down-up-down pattern that ended up being a local minimum (hilighted in the dark gray).  Something from mid-May caught my attention; a similar down-up-down pattern.  If this May/June fractal repeats itself, we could end up seeing a head-and-shoulders-oid  topping formation.  Anyway, just my 2 cents … I'm hoping we take the red pill but it could go either way so I'm staying nimble.

A Heavy Post

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One of my favorite Slopers is Leisa. Besides being a nice person all around, she also doubles as my conscience; if I ever get a little out of hand, I get a kind but firmly-worded email, and that sets me straight.

She sent me something to post on the blog which she originally wrote a couple of years ago. I offer it to you and I thank Leisa for sharing this. – – Tim

This post is very pertinent to investing, but it is also deeply personal.
For whatever reason, I was moved to post this story. I may regret it. But I'll
resolve not to delete it because I think it is important. I would also like you
to share it with someone that you think might benefit. And let me be clear,
this post is not meant to be dramatic. I'm not trying to draw attention to
myself. I'm trying to draw your attention to you. It is meant to be honest and
coldly objective. If you ever find yourself in this position, I hope that you
remember reading this post. It's tragically true, and one of the most deeply
moving experiences of my life.

Nearly 17 years ago my brother committed suicide. He was 32. In February of
1990, my father, sister and I went out to Colorado Springs (my mother had died
of lung cancer the previous November) to await the why's and wherefore's of my
brother's death. It's a horrible space to find one's self in. He had a wife and
two young daughters: 2 years old and 5 months. It was heartbreaking to see my 2
year old niece cry Daddy, Daddy, Daddy to every headlight that beamed down the
road. She didn't understand that her Daddy would not be coming home.

He had put all of his things in order–to include his income tax preparation. I
will not go into all of the underlying reasons why I thought my brother
(estranged) chose suicide, but the catalyst was that he lost everything in the
stock market. Everything. There was $300 in his bank account. They were arrears
in their rent. His wife had no idea. He had sold his home in CA with a
significant gain. Moved to CO and was renting a beautiful, expensive home. The
sizable gain on home? Evaporated. Nada. Zippo. He had the one thing that was of
financial value: a sizable insurance policy (he sold insurance).

He did the penultimate financial fuck up–he lost EVERYTHING in the stock
market. The real pathos of the story is not that he lost his money, but that he
thought that the insurance policy was more valuable to his family than his
life. Amaranth and Mother Rock are titillating stories. But, there are real
people behind those stories. Why am I posting this? BECAUSE
I DON'T WANT ANY OF YOU TO EVER CONFUSE THE VALUE OF YOUR BANK ACCOUNT WITH THE
VALUE OF YOUR LIFE.

I have little to offer people who stop by to read this modest blog. But I
assure you that today's message is the most powerful and incisive that I could
ever offer–one that you will NOT get from any paid subscription. Sure,
investing is a provocative subject: it's sexy, it's intellectual and it's
instant, provocative conversation. But in the end, it is your financial health.
But I want to tell you, bluntly, that if you fuck up, it is not your life. It is
never your life. You start over. You dial back to being in your 20's
again–poor but idealistic. However, never, ever is it your life. (Of course
the underlying message is NOT to screw up (no more than 2 f-words in a
post!).

I don't know what 2007 will bring. I don't know a damn thing but this: You are
not your bank account. You are not your annual return. You are not your annual
salary. You are a spouse, a mother, a father, a friend, a son or a daughter,
but you are never a dollar.

So whatever decisions that you choose to make about your life–whether it's a
stock purchase, business venture, financial investment, love interest or
employment decision–you do so with conviction that should it blow up in your
face, you can face the next day with the stain of embarrassment on your cheeks
or a "how could I be so stupid" slap to the forehead, but you
continue to be a part of the lives of the people who know and love you. And all
of these things I feel well qualified to tell you.