Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Dumb Luck

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Even though I'm not a particularly social creature, I'm in touch with a lot of different people. They come from all walks of life, and all sorts of social stations. They range from students who can't afford their rent to billionaire entrepreneurs; they range from savvy-well read investors to people whose idea of a newspaper is USA Today. So I talk to a lot of different folks.

My general impression these days is that the ones who have done the best in 2009, and who are most optimistic that Things Are All Right Now, are at the low end of the IQ scale, or at least the experience & knowledge scale. Now, I know what some of you are thinking: "Oh, Lordy, poor old Tim has resorted to name-calling, since 2009 has been such a stinker." Nope. Sometimes the well-read and experienced make the money. Sometimes the dummies do.

I think the people throwing money into crap NASDAQ companies in the late 1990s were really dumb. They also got really rich. The stock market is not an IQ test. I believe one's results in the market are a direct reflection of who you are as a person (which is a combination of intellect, temperament, experience, discipline, knowledge, etc.) and what the market is at that particular point in human history. Sometimes the market agrees with a person; sometimes the market does not. This year, the market hasn't agreed with me.

Of course, our collective goal is to be as market-neutral as possible. If the dumb people are making money, great, then be dumb! Think dumb, dream dumb, and act dumb. But that's far easier said than dumb (pun intended).

Because, as I've beaten to death all year, most of the rise in equity prices has been from artificial means (use yesterday's ~25% gains in FNM and FRE as a microcosm of 2009). There are exceptions. I think AAPL, AMZN and GOOG, for instance, are sensational organizations that are printing money, and God bless 'em for being real businesses with real products, real customers, and real profits. But – and I'll say this as passively as I can muster – my view is that equities are not undervalued. To say the least.

But the dumb, overvalued market in December 1999 kept rocketing higher into 2000 for another ten weeks, and who am I to say it won't continue here? But I'm a chartist, if nothing else, and the charts I'm finding – and shorting – are bearish plays. I'm not going to buy Amazon because it has had a good 2009 (nor am I going to short it, by the way).

I do my job one day at a time, one chart at a time, and I have to be real with myself, for better or worse. To thine own self be true.

Developing a Trader’s Mind (by Market Sniper)

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Hello fellow Slopers! My apologies for not being more of a regular contributor. I have recently relocated and that has thrown me a bit off my stride.

This is the first of a series of posts on setting up your trading business. The topics covered have had books written on them and this is not meant to be inclusive or, due to time and space constraints, cannot be an in-depth examination of the topics covered. They are however, what I consider to be the essentials of what is required to become a successful trader. At the end of each topic I will include further resources that I have found most helpful in my development as a trader should you wish to delve further. Here is the proposed outline:

  • Developing A Trader's Mind Set

  • The Nuts And Bolts: your business plan, mission statement and statement of belief.

  • The Search For Method

  • Finding Your Edge: trade setups, trading plans and trading journal

  • Risk Assessment And Trade Management

  • Putting It Altogether

  • These topics, with the exception of the first, are not meant to be necessarily dealt with in sequence. You will find they are highly interrelated and most, if not all, you will deal with throughout your trading career.

    Development Of The Successful Trader's Mind Set

    I am firmly convinced that this is what separates successful traders from failed traders. There are statistics and studies that indicated that 95% of all traders eventually fail. In futures trading, that 95% is usually within the first year. For equity traders, it takes a bit longer. Interestingly enough, most traders do not do the hard work in advance. They fail to recognize the psychology involved as they interact with markets. I have found that this a voyage of self discovery and one of the most difficult things I have attempted in my life. The rewards, however, are spectacular.

    Most traders read a few books, check out some web sites, open a trading account and then start trading. IF this is you, you have already doomed yourself to failure. As Dear Old Dad Used To Say: if making money was that easy, everyone would have a lot of it!

    Trading is a marathon event, hopefully one you will run for as long as you choose to continue trading. It is NOT a sprint! Most traders look for stock picks, trading gurus, sure-fire trading methods (also known as Holy Grails), etc. immediately. The Holy Grail does NOT exist outside yourself but it DOES exist! It is located between your own two ears, should you seek to develop it.

    First of all, successful traders learn to think in terms of probabilities. NOBODY knows what will happen next! Shocking, no? The good news is, you do not have to know what happens next to make money in markets. When you trade your perceived edge you are trading nothing more than your assessment of the probability of one outcome being higher than another outcome.

    It has been said that we trade our belief in what happens next, and I do agree with that statement. It is what you do when you find out what happens next that also separates successful traders from the rest.

    This brings us to dealing with the need to be right. More good news: you do not have to be always right to make money in markets! Indeed, you can be wrong a majority of the time and still make money in markets! Medical doctors undoubtedly make the worst traders. As a medical doctor you must be right. If you're wrong, people die. Bring that to the market and you will get slaughtered. In our previous successful endeavors, we have developed skill sets to become successful. Bad news: for the most part, you apply those previous skills to trading, you will get slaughtered.

    Why is that? Your previous skill set involves manipulating the situation you are in, the people around you, and your environment to achieve the desired result. The market will have none of that. Once you hit the trade button and your trade is executed, you no longer have any control over price action. Indeed, the market is structured in such a way to compel you to act contrary to your own best interest! That is the reason why most continue to buy at highs and sell at lows.

    There are a host of other issues that you must deal with as well. You might want to look closely at your relationship with money itself. Do you believe that when wealth is garnered by an individual that he deserves that wealth? Is money the root of all evil? What about wealthy people, eyes of needles and camels? There are fund managers that manage funds invested in individual traders. They KNOW when some trader is about to hit the wall due to the level of equity. Even professional traders are not immune to this. Deep down, below the conscious level, they believe they only deserve to make so much money. When that is exceeded, they find ways to give it back! Absolute equity levels are tracked by these managers. When a pattern emerges, they take advantage of that. As children, we are taught that to take what belongs to others is wrong. How do you feel about taking someone else's money? On the surface, you may think, hey, no problem. Look deeper, it could be a problem. This is but a very brief examination of some of the work ahead of you as you attempt to gain a successful trader's mind set. At this point it might be instructive to examine some of the qualities of successful traders as it relates to constructing your own Holy Grail.

    Responsibility. Successful traders take full responsibility for their trading decisions and trading outcomes. This is one of the most important qualities found in a good trader's mind set. It is the core of everything. As you move through life, you either believe that you can create your own desired results, or things just happen to you. When you believe you create your own results, trading then becomes a learning process. You can identify behavior that leads to undesirable results and take steps to correct behavior. IF you believe that success/failure is due to luck or external forces like the PPT, TPTB, GS or Ben Bernanke, you will continue to repeat your errors, and your trading career will be short lived and end in disaster. Take the responsibility upon yourself. Own it! This is difficult for many to do. Take the step. It will pay you huge dividends!

    Commitment. Success comes to those traders that treat trading as a business. What this means is you make the commitment to do what it takes to make your business a success. That entails work and study to lay the foundation for your business. IF you are not committed, you will not do the work required. You will get sidetracked by obstacles and the trading losses will mount.

    Lack of internal conflict. Lack of internal conflict goes to both trading psychology (the resolution of internal issues) and to the quality of your commitment. When you are totally focused on trading success without internal conflict, you are then totally committed. The more focus and fewer internal conflicts, the closer you get to successful trading.

    Independent thinking. Great traders tend to be independent thinkers. They are not influenced by what their neighbors, friends, relatives, gurus or what the talking heads on Bloomberg or CNBC say or supposedly think. They eschew all influences during trading that interfere with their pursuit of consistently extracting capital from markets based on their own chosen method. That method allows the successful trader to generate low-risk trades, manage the trades to cut losses short, let profits run and have a position sizing method to help them meet their goals.

    Efficient decision making. Research shows that people have developed various decision making short-cuts that lead to inefficient decision making. In fact, a whole new area has been developed in economics called Behavioral Finance. In summary, it now appears that due to these short-cuts, people tend to be risk-prone with losses and conservative with profits. This means that people have a huge problem with following the Trader's Golden Rule: Cut losses short and let profits run. Therefore, another quality of the successful trader is he hones his decision making process to overcome the natural bias involved in inefficient decision making. IF you need to be right and have a need to seek to control the market, you are an inefficient decision maker.

    These are briefly some of the qualities required. There are others such as positive attitude, organizational skills, lack of impulsive action and intuitive ability.

    A brief word about intuitive ability: it is developed over long periods of actual trading and study of markets. It is a sixth sense about when something is wrong or different. Do you have to be intuitive to be a good trader? Absolutely not. Until you reach that point, you do need to develop skill in handling positions when something unusual happens.

    Resources. This is but an extremely brief overview of a very complex subject. Here are some additional resources I have found to be extremely helpful to me in my development as a trader. First, and this I consider to be an absolute must, get two books written by Mark Douglas: The Disciplined Trader and Trading In The Zone. Tattoo both books on the inside of your eyelids prior to entering your next trade! Secondly, Dr, Brett Steenbarger. His blog is an absolute gold mine for traders! You will not be disappointed! http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/

    I would also suggest you pick up his book The Daily Trading Coach. It is not intended as a straight-through read but rather it is organized thematically dealing with various issues in trading psychology. When you run into a problem, you can go right to a probable solution. I would also recommend the work of Dr. Van K. Tharp, a very prominent trading psychologist.

    Again, most traders will skip right over all of this and that is OK! IF you chose to do that, the 5% are waiting for you. Come on in, the water is just fine!

    Linear Musings (by Biffermas)

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    (Editor's note: When I asked for folks to contribute to Slope, dozens and dozens of folks raised their hands, but only a few of them have contributed consistently. I am very grateful for these contributions. One particularly consistent guest poster has been Biffermas, whose last post of the year is below. Thanks, Bif, from all of us! – – Tim Knight)

    Toad-river-canada-1191509-sw 

    Humans conceive reality in linear (straight) ways.  There is a starting point and a destination,
    If A, B, C, and D are performed, than E is the outcome.  Houses are built in simple geometric forms,
    not blobs.  We enter school in
    kindergarten and follow the straight line of education upward through college
    before attacking the world.  Roads are
    built as directly as possible, using bridges, tunnels, and carving away any
    earth in the way.  Scientific study is
    notoriously linear, with research designed to eliminate as many variables as
    possible.  Linear thinking is likely an
    evolutionary design used to reduce a complex world into a simplified form
    understandable to humans.  There’s
    nothing wrong with this, provided that we realize it’s happening and account
    for it.

    Markets and stock prices don’t move in straight lines, they
    move like water over uneven terrain. 
    Viewed from above, a river takes the form of a snake, and appears to
    follow a very inefficient path while flowing from valleys to ocean (or Southern
    California).  Runoff from snow-capped
    mountains will eventually reach the rivers, but the pathway is inconsistent and
    constantly shifting.  Leaves on a tree
    don’t sway in the wind in uniform and consistent fashion, but in a chaotic
    dance.  Weather patterns are too complex
    for 100% prediction by experts in the field. 
    With millions of variables, why should markets be any different?

    Technical analysis is an excellent tool to survey the
    market, without a doubt.  There’s
    nothing wrong with basing your trading plan around the linear concepts of chart
    patterns and setups, provided that you pay homage to the higher complexity and
    unknown forces in control.  You must
    yield to such forces by taking losses quickly when appropriate.  If you refuse this you’ll cease to exist as
    a trader; just another corpse in a large pile of like-minded who insisted on
    forcing their two-dimensional world views against the violent multi-dimensional
    market.

    This short Alan Watts video captures the linear trap that many
    Americans fall into.  Grinding away
    their entire lives going down the predestined path of education, work, raising
    kids, paying off the debt and mortgage, etc.  
    A short, largely joyless life wasted simply to reach that great point on the
    time-line: retirement!  I hope all my
    friends here on the Slope remember that in life it’s not the destination that’s
    important, it’s what happens along the way. 
    Don’t forget to dance while the music plays! 

    Have an excellent holiday season, and best of luck in 2010!  Thanks for all the support you've shown me, a relative newcomer.  I'm leaving for Bora Bora on Wednesday, so I'll be largely absent until the new year.

    Buy, Hold, and Sell for 2010

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    If there is one word I would use to describe 2008, it would be exhilarating. For 2009, I would use the word draining. I have put all my energy in analyzing and trading in 2009. On an absolute scale, I have done OK this year. On a relative scale – which is the one that really counts – I have stunk. I am disappointed in myself and have tried to learn as much as I can from my errors.

    With this in mind, I offer those beliefs which I plan to "buy" for the coming year, those on which I am neutral, and those which I plan to "sell".

    Buy

    • Precious Metals – I have been a doubting Thomas on this the entire time, and I was wrong. The frantic creation of fiat currency by the Fed has been a godsend for precious metals fans. I cringe at the fact I sold my bullion a year ago, buying into the EWI notion of a plunging gold market. I am planning to be a proud member of the gold bandwagon.
    • Retracement Levels – This is one of the few technical methods that has been, at best, indispensable, and, at worst, non-harmful.
    • Setting Stops – risk management and consistent use of stops has saved my neck this year. I have been extremely rigid with this habit, and with good reason.
    • Inverted Head and Shoulders – Specifically, at the top of price movements (or at least not at the bottom). I used to dismiss this pattern, but both gold and equity indexes in general have shown this pattern to be powerful and effective. I'm a believer.
    • Diversification – A large number of small positions is a style that works for me, and it has done me more good than harm this year.
    • Rampant Consumerism – It saddens me to realize this, but Americans will not shake their profligate spending. All the anecdotes you see about the new austerity are a big pile of crap. The citizens of this country will buy stuff they don't need with money they don't have until the end of time. Shame on me for thinking otherwise.

    Hold

    • Elliott Wave - The jury's still out on this one for me. During the bear market, I wanted to know everything I could about EW. At this point, I'm really starting to wonder if, as many people say, it's a spiffy way to mark the past, but useless as a predictive tool. I'm willing to withhold judgment for now.
    • Options – Nothing against them specifically, but my style of trading has changed such that I've stopped trading options altogether.
    • 1937 to 1942 analog – I have been "married" to this analog pretty much all year. Perhaps I should have this in the "Long" list, since its prediction of a huge upmove has panned out, but my skepticism is on the uptick since its call for a downward turn has missed, and missed, and missed. Again, the jury is still out. Some meaningful weakness between now and year's end would strengthen the case.

    Sell

    • Cycle Analysis – I was thumbing through my Trading Tome, and I saw example after example of compelling looking cycle predictions which didn't amount to jack squat. From lunar cycles to the Caralon spiral calender, this entire category has been a letdown for me.
    • Apocalyptic Viewpoints - Bearish as I've been, I've never been a jumping-up-and-down the Dow-is-heading-to-400 windbag. There are plenty of folks out there who are, and I've learned that their viewpoints have as much credibility as the Dow 36,000 crowd.
    • Overnight Trading - Trading the /ES was really profitable for me in late 2008, but between the thin-volume shenanigans and the bolt-from-the-blue spikes, I quit the /ES trading scene months ago. I don't intend to go back.
    • Doubting Manipulation's Efficacy - I was skeptical that the government could manipulate the markets, mainly because I figured if it was so easy, the collapse in 2008 wouldn't have happened in the first place. It seems that the government simply got caught with its pants down, but once they had the tools in place, they can make the market do whatever they want. Sad, but true, and important to recognize.

    So that's it; I was a pretty cynical fellow a year ago, but my cynicism has probably doubled now. I'll be as cynical as I need to me in order to succeed in my trading. I want to draw as many lessons from this year as I can.

    Santa Got Runover By a Reindeer (by Fayssoux)

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    Friday 8:30am we get the November retail sales report.
     Gaming expectations and reactions to a reported number like
    this one is always very hard, as there is so much noise in day to day equity
    movements.  

    Nonetheless, my hypothesis is that:  a) the number will
    be less than expectation; b) this surprise is not embedded in current equity
    prices; and c) the disappointment will catalyze a selloff in retailers.
     That's how I am positioned; we will see if I am right or wrong.

    Why might it disappoint?  Black Friday was underwhelming.
     Online retail sales are up marginally, and online should grow faster than
    brick and mortar (8-10% sales taxes in CA, IL, NY).  I posted before that
    Google search data is down for many retailers, signifying intent to shop is down
    as well.  Neiman Marcus and Abercrombie have had dreadful sales results.

    The best supermarket chain in the business (Kroger) was taken to the
    woodshed yesterday.  Videogame sales have been weak.  There is a fair
    amount of anecdotal evidence that higher stock prices are not driving consumers
    to spend more freely than last year. 
    Consumers see unemployment all around them.  They know the amount of shadow inventory in
    housing and the trajectory of house prices. 
    They are deleveraging.

    XRT is a good vehicle for betting against retail.  An individual idea mentioned on the Slope sometimes
    is DECK.  My strong anecdotal teen
    evidence says UGGs are on the way out. DECK market cap assumes otherwise.

    Deck