Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
Hi SoH… geek alert!
As the Cyprus drama and other macro events play out and distort normal macro economic signals to varying degrees in the short-term, let’s review the ‘real price’ of counter-cyclical gold vs. the cyclical industrial metals:
Au-GYX Ratio, daily chart
It’s good to see precious metals get up off the mat. Miners in particular are showing strength. I think this could continue for a while longer, but over the coming months, just to be crystal clear, I think they are in for what we in the technical analysis community call ButtHurt.
ES crawled up using the 50 hour moving average as support yesterday and has pushed up further overnight. The 50 HMA is at 1542 and strong level support is at 1537. Until the 50 HMA at least is broken with any confidence there is nothing to see on the bear side here:
(Editor’s note – Gary Tanashian gives us the post below, which is timely given my newfound love of gold. Just to be clear, particularly for the miners, I am long precious metals as a bounce play; I am as bearish on miners as ever – – I don’t feel nearly as strongly about the metals themselves – – and have every intention of shorting the bejesus out of miners once they’ve bounced; however, some of the battered miners might spring 50% higher from current levels, so it pays to wait – Tim)
The noise of the day includes much hand-wringing about gold
manipulation, gold’s precarious technical situation, the end of gold as a
useful tool for protection against inflation and even the end of its
bull market. But maybe a simple look at the facts works better.
Central Banks’ Balance Sheets vs. Gold. Source: DoubleLine Funds
Not Reading Slope Can Be Expensive
Back on Tuesday, February 12th, our host Tim noted natural resources stocks were weakening and suggested shorting Cliffs Natural Resources (CLF).
The next day, Cliffs dived 20% after announcing a cut in its dividend after the close on Tuesday.
From A Mess To The Masses
The old Odd Lot Theory was based on a simple premise: the average, small investor (those who couldn't afford round lots of shares) was usually wrong. Guess which stock Fidelity customers were buying with both hands as it dropped 20% on February 13th?
