Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
OK, I'll probably regret this, but I am trying once more to take on gold as a hedge; I have gone long, although I will cheerfully bail out (again) if it doesn't firm up. Precious metals have had the holy bejesus kicked out of them, and it seems like it's time for a countertrend rally.
The overnight decline on ES didn't follow through on Friday and I'm in two minds about further downside this week, though there is a decent setup for considerable further downside on a conviction break below 1485. ES is forming a triangle at the moment and we'll see which way that breaks. Even if the retracement low is in however, there is still a decent argument for that low to be tested. It won't be long before rising support from the November low will reach the 1485 level, and at the least I would like to see that trendline confirmed with a third touch:
I had gold as my one long position for a few days, with good results, but as I mentioned in my video yesterday, I felt it was time for gold to change course and soften up again. Thus far, it has done so, and as I'm typing this, it's balanced just above 1600, threatening to drop beneath it. I've built up a fairly large short position in GLD with a tight stop at 155.61. (Edit: Ummm, the moment I typed the period to that last sentence, support failed, so……..I'm going to publish this now; the break isn't reflected in the screen shot below).
Shaking Out The Herd
In a Slope post on Tuesday ("30.2 Yield Curve And Gold"), Gary Tanashian noted that, "over the last 1.5+ years gold has shaken out the herd". Our host Tim, not one to follow herds, reminded us on Tuesday that he's currently long gold via GLD ("Target on GLD Long Approaching"); nevertheless, according to Reuters, more GLD herd members did get shaken out last month, with the gold ETF seeing a billion dollars in outflows in January. In this post, we'll look at a couple of updated hedges for GLD. First, though, a note about Bernanke's testimony yesterday, and an interesting gold chart Bespoke Investment Group posted in response to it.
