Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Triangle Breaks Down

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Bears had a solid day yesterday, breaking and closing below the 50 day MA, 50 day EMA and triangle support. Broken triangle support was perfectly retested and held. The full triangle target is in the 1972 area, and if SPX fails to get back over 2000 today, then I have a flag target there as well.

Important support levels on the way to that target are the daily lower and weekly middle bands at 2087-9, and the 100 day MA and rising wedge support from 2045 in the 2083-6 range. If SPX is going to fail to make the triangle target, then I would expect the fail to be at the rising wedge support in the 2085 area, and if SPX should touch and reverse there, then SPX could well retest the highs and perhaps make a slightly higher all time high within that rising wedge. If the rising wedge support breaks, then that opens up the full triangle target in the 2072/3 area,. SPX 15min chart:

150605 SPX 15min Triangle Breaking Down

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Gold Sector, Big Picture

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Following is a reprint of the latest free eLetter that you can sign up for as an introduction to Notes From the Rabbit Hole (NFTRH), our more in-depth market management service.

Big Picture Gold Sector Update

On shorter time frames the gold sector has been viewed as being on an ‘anti-USD’ inflation bounce. This bounce scenario in gold stocks and commodities took a hit last week with the US dollar’s strong bounce.

In NFTRH we are managing things on both short and long time frames, with the short-term currently tied to movements in the USD. On the long-term however, things appear to be setting up for the next big macro play. The following charts are used for big picture updates to give perspective to the shorter-term work we do each week in NFTRH.

Gold Sector Update (Big Picture) (more…)

Gold: Contrary Indicators

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By Biiwii

It was bad enough that a numbered bullet point, (!) using tout has been lathering the gold “community” lately with an amazing fundamental consideration he calls “the Chindian love trade” (you know, in China they buy gold for love and as their economy grows gold will go way up in price). Never mind that he promoted gold for Indian Weddings and China demand all through the bear market or that as recently as last week he predicted that the US ‘jobs’ number would be huge and gold would sky rocket due to panicked institutional demand in the face of rising inflation.

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Big Moves are Coming

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I follow four areas of the market very closely; volatility, miners, gold, and the SPY index, and everything smells of deflation.  I trade on the 2 and 4 hour, but I took a step back and looked at the monthly, weekly, and daily charts and everywhere I look it smells of lack of oxygen.

The broad market has a decreasing positive slope (8% y-t-d), and why not, you cannot continue to have 10-14% (from 2014) annualized growth rates with no GDP, Income, or fixed income rates.  The charade started with a relative yield trade, then a squeeze volatility trade, and now we are wrapping up the leverage the balance sheet trade.  The Central Banks and politicians have done everything except the right thing, and maybe because the  right thing is the hard thing.

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