Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Where Will Gold Bottom? (by Mr. Wizard)

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“Gold’s going to $1000, it’s very clear from the charts.”

“Gold has to hit $800 before it finds a bottom.”

I’m here to call you on that $800 prediction, and in fact go you one better: gold is going to drop at least $400, and possibly more. No, I’m not trying to one-up all of the dire numbers various pundits have thrown out as to where the price of gold will eventually reach. Nor am I claiming that bearishness has reached a climax, and secretly hoping this is The Bottom. In fact, I don’t even believe the analysis I’m about to present is correct. So why bother to write a few hundred words about something I don’t agree with? Simply because I have been investing in gold for over 12 years, and as a prudent investor it’s vital that I consider bearish as well as bullish scenarios in my investment.

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Hype in the “Community” is Always Punished

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By Biiwii

IKN has been pointing out the stupidity of some Apple Watch gold consumption hype and most recently, the non-flight to quality amidst Greece blah blah blah… He is at least as sensitive as I am to this stuff. More so, maybe.

While I have personally tried to tone down the criticism of the cartoons in the gold “community”, I find it difficult with one writer in particular leading the naive into the GDX (with its “drop dead gorgeous bull wedge”), into the Indian Wedding and China demand stories and as a topping on the cartoonish cake, the ‘US jobs will drive inflation so make like the smart money and BUY GOLD before the big institutions do!’ garbage.

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Probably A Dip To Buy

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Bears had a pleasant break from the uptrend yesterday, pulling back to close on the low just above support at the 50 DMA (2107) and the daily middle band (2104). On the bigger pictures the bears haven’t accomplished anything yet, and to take back control of the market they need a closing basis break below the daily middle band. Until we see that this is likely to be just be another buyable dip. SPX daily chart:

150625 SPX Daily Patterns BBs MAs

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Gold’s Ratio Signals

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A brief snapshot of counter-cyclical gold’s macro signals vs. other metals (and broad commodities) that are more positively correlated to economies, using weekly charts…

Each week NFTRH updates many charts of nominal US and global stock markets, commodities, precious metals and currencies over multiple time frames. But we also cover economic data and indicators, with the first macro chart below (Palladium vs. Gold) still barely holding its economic ‘UP’ signal from January, 2013. At that time a coming economic up phase did not seem likely, but PALL-Gold and fundamental information gleaned from a personal source in the Semiconductor Equipment sector gave us a good risk vs. reward on that stance.

While it can be argued that using an indicator like Palladium (positive economic correlation) to Gold (counter cyclical) is subject to the discrete supply/demand fundamentals of the two assets, it has worked to signal up and down economic phases, with the most recent shown in Q1 2013 (green arrow). This indicator has been whipsawing since topping out a year ago and the moving averages are near a trigger point.

pall.gold

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