Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

A Rumbling Below the Surface for US Dollar?

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Today is all about Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech at 10 am Eastern, but from a market perspective, we might want to keep a close watch on the reaction of the USD to what Powell says or does not say.

Why? Yesterday’s strength in the Dollar has reversed overnight into this morning’s pre-market session.

In a post to members at 15:30 yesterday, I posited the following about the USD: “The $64,000 question about Gold and the Gold Miners depends on the direction of the USD: Was the recent decline in DXY the start of a period of weakness or a completed correction?”  (more…)

It’s Quite a Dust-Up

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The way I phrased it last week, I am long-term bearish on precious metals (in spite of their being in a 7 year bear market) and short-term bullish. Well, the “bullish” worked out, because gold, silver, and more specifically the miners, all had nice bounces. Those few days of reprieve, however, seem to have shot their wad, as precious metals have resumed what they have spent the past seven years doing, which is sucking out loud. One way to view this is via the triple-bearish-on-miners fund below, which has a critical breakout above its descending trendline (red oval) and a more recent gap-up (green oval). Let me put it this way – – the chart is bullish, and if this were just a normal common stock, I think any technician would draw the same conclusion.

dustup

Just Take The Metals Out Back And Shoot!

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So, does my title appropriately capture the sentiment about metals right now?

While the title may seem a bit extreme to some of you, many are leaving the metals for dead, and others have already written their obituaries.

In fact, this past week, just as the metals were hitting what will likely be a bottoming in either a third wave of this decline, or possibly even all of the decline, a headline article came out on MarketWatch entitled “Here’s why gold might die out as an investment.”

Within that article, the writer alludes to the fact that since gold was not able to rally due to the geopolitical tensions around Turkey, then it is a sign it is no longer useful. However, if any of you have read my articles on this issue, you would know that history does not support the premise that gold reacts as a safe haven for geopolitical tensions. This is purely a fallacy. But, since it is regurgitated so often most of the market has taken it as gospel despite the facts suggesting otherwise.

The next premise within the article upon which he declares gold as dead is due to technology, and he is not referring to cryptocurrencies. While he is not wholly clear regarding this perspective, my assumption is that he is falling into the trap of most people in the market. Since the Nasdaq has continued to rally strongly, along with its supporting cast of FAANG, then that is clearly where younger people are going to put their money, rather than gold.

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What Gold Is Not

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I was reading a post by Martin Armstrong called…

Gold and the Changing Fundamentals

…and in it he published a question from an email sent by a reader:

“Mr. Armstrong; You are obviously the person worth listening to when it comes to gold. Every fundamental these people have argued to support gold has proven completely false. Confusion in gold is really very high. You have to be really stupid at this point to listen to this nonsense. Can you express any opinion on gold?”

“These people” the emailer is talking about are obviously the gold “community” at large and the “gold analyst” (ha ha ha, gold analyst; hi, I am a gold analyst; I analyze a piece of rock that does nothing whatsoever) community in particular. First of all, anyone who belongs to a community is already implicitly sworn in as biased. Secondly, a gold analyst is just another term for gold-obsessed idealist who really wants you to be obsessed with it too.

Don’t get me wrong. There are a lot of market and gold mining analysts very much worth their salt. Within a market analyst’s analysis there is gold analysis, just as there is tin, hogs, corn and global equities analysis. Within a mining analyst’s work is the ability to help us pick real companies in which to invest and avoid the plentiful scams out there. I have two who I trust through our long-term relationships; Inca Kola News (IKN) and a personal contact who is not public (although I think he should be). You should either do intensive fundamental work or have access to reputable sources for it. (more…)