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Just yesterday I was mentioning the very smooth basing power of ultra-bearish fund DUST, shown below. I’ve circled the price gap. It is adding to its gains from yesterday. It just seems the so-called precious metals sector, after seven years in its own bear market, can’t get up off the carpet.
Gold is taking a bit of a breather after earlier climbing to a new recovery rally high at $1220.70 in the December futures (GC), a full $53.60 and 4.6% off its August 16, 2 1/2-year low at $1167.10.In a very bullish set-up, gold (GC) should digest recent gains above the $1207 area, where the 5 DMA has just crossed above the 20 DMA. However, if $1207 is violated and sustained, then we should expect gold to press into a deeper correction of its $53.60 rally, towards the $1195-$1190 support zone, which MUST contain the weakness to avert a complete retrace of the August advance.
If either the shallow ($1207) or deeper ($1195/90) corrections unfold, the subsequent upleg will point to $1250.00.
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Gold, silver, and precious metals miners have been bouncing lately (I suggested going long miners on the 16th to my PLUS subscribers, which I’m glad to say was the exact bottom). I still think they have room to run, but for the more nervous folks out there, I wanted to point out that an important price gap is quite close. In addition, as the gold sector chart shows below, the moving averages have entered into full-blown collapse mode.
For those that follow me regularly, you will know that I have been tracking a set-up for the SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), which I analyze as a proxy for the gold market. I also believe that gold can outperform the general equity market once we confirm a long-term break out has begun.
While I have gone on record as to why I do not think the GLD ETF is a wise long-term investment hold, I still use it to track the market movements. For those that have not seen my webinar about why I don’t think the GLD is a wise long-term investment, feel free to review my webinar on the matter.
Since it seems that some of you have been confused by what my perspective for 2018 has been when it comes to GLD, I would like to take a moment to outline it again so we can all be clear:
As far as my expectation for the metals, when we came into 2018, I was quite bullish the metals as they had a strong 1-2, i-ii set up to the upside. I have noted many times that if a chart that presents a long-term bullish perspective, such as metals, provides a shorter-term bullish potential set up, I will always defer to that set up as my primary expectation. That is what I did with the metals coming into 2018. But, I provided a clear guide that this will remain a strong perspective only if GLD remains over 119. I noted quite clearly that if GLD were to drop below 119, it would make me question that immediate perspective. (more…)
A general review of the current status across different asset markets. This is not comprehensive, forward-looking analysis as per NFTRH, but it is an up to the minute summary (as of Friday afternoon).
Gold, silver and gold stock indexes/ETFs made what I had thought were bear flags yesterday, but today’s reversal painted them as short-term bounce patterns (‘W’ with a higher low in the miners and silver).
This chart of gold shows a flag breakdown, whipsaw and new closing high for the short-term move. As we’ve noted for weeks now, the Commitments of Traders (CoT) is in a contrary bullish alignment with large Specs all but wrung out of the market (they were fleeced again; don’t believe hype about their increased shorting being some sort of conspiracy). All in all, not bad for the relic. The bounce lives on. (more…)
