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In my premarket video on Friday I was noting the four hourly sell signals fixed (3x) or forming (1x) on ES, NQ, RTY and DAX and saying that we might well see a retracement day. We saw that and all those signals reached target by the end of the day.
In my The Bigger Picture video yesterday I was looking at the support backtests seen on Friday and was looking at the bullish looking setups on SPX and QQQ particularly. So far that looks as though it may be delivering so let’s review.
(more…)This afternoon, Amazon (AMZN) will be the final exciting earnings event of the season. Afterward, it’s going to be mostly humdrum stuff until it fizzles into nothing (then, weirdly, NVDA has their moment in the spotlight on the 26th).
Amazon is a rather steady stock, being a $2.5 trillion behemoth whose defining characteristic is the ascending price channel, where it has been banging around for almost all human history.
“The markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.” — John Maynard Keynes
It’s a sobering reminder that even the most seasoned investors aren’t immune to the fickle nature of the financial markets. Today’s S&P 500 seems to be on an endless upward trajectory, defying gravity with each new high, tempting traders to believe in an unbreakable rally. But history whispers a different tale—bull markets, no matter how robust, are often punctuated by sharp, unexpected corrections. While no one can predict with absolute certainty when the tide will turn, prudence suggests preparing for the inevitable. Strategic hedging isn’t about forecasting the future; it’s about fortifying your portfolio against it. This is where the bear call spread becomes more than just a strategy—it becomes your safety net when the euphoria fades.
(more…)I’m a creature of deeply-ingrained habits. Up at 5. Asleep at 10. Repeat. Being in a strange place, nice as it is, four time zones ahead, can throw me for a loop. That’s why I’m sitting on the floor at midnight composing a post about Monday’s index action. Trust me, being on a plane and watching the unchecked mayhem from above the Atlantic is not something I want to make a habit.
As traders, we know to be nimble, to quickly react when price turns against our thesis.
Last week was a good example of the current dubiously controlled markets – the tape bombs, the announcement of change from the former normal, the next issue that may, in a flash, change the market direction.
The best-looking setups don’t always play out, still, we place our bets from what the charts show us. Win or lose (remembering the biggest winner is a tiny loser), one thing we can be assured of is that the markets will provide another opportunity, directly; wait for it.
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