Jen-Shun Huang’s NVDA is known for many things, but this is probably not a list of bragging rights they like to bring up:
Another Trophy for Nvidia
Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
Another Fourth Turning
This one image sums it up beautifully: by an amalgamation of metrics, the market is batshit-insane overpriced. Trust me. I live in a valley in which programmers which in a normal world should make $150,000 per year are instead being given nine-figure options packages. This. Will. Not. Last.
The January Barometer & Other Stats
In my post on Monday 13th January I was looking at the four bull flag setups on SPX, QQQ, DIA and IWM, and the possibility that the bull flags would break up into retests of the all time highs across all four of those. SPX and DIA have made their new all time highs now, QQQ is getting close and I have some doubts about whether IWM will make it. I’ll review those today but first some historical stats.
The January Barometer is triggered when January closes down, and will often deliver a down year, but unless we see a truly impressive decline today that is now irrelevant for this year.
The second statistic I’ve been looking at today is the record of stock markets in the year after a presidential election. Of the last 21 of those going back to Roosevelt in 1941, eight delivered a down year, making this overall weakly bullish.
(more…)Weird Wild Stuff
Maybe the legend of Bear Force One shouldn’t be thrown into the dustbin of history after all. The market peaked at the MOMENT I walked onto the plane, and it’s been skidding lower ever since. Perhaps we can do in-flight refuels and just keep me airborne until the Dow is at, I dunno, 8000 or so.
The Expected Move
How Options Traders Measure Market Expectations
Most traders focus on price. They watch charts, analyze earnings reports, and debate whether a stock will go up or down. But price alone doesn’t tell you much. Expectations do.
In options trading, the market’s expectations aren’t hidden—they’re built into the options prices themselves. The expected move tells you how far a stock is likely to move over a given period, based on what the options market is pricing in. While it won’t tell you which direction a stock will go, it gives you a reasonable estimate of how much movement is already anticipated. For traders, that information is far more useful than any price target.
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