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Good morning from sunny Tennessee. As I turn on my screens this morning I see red on the futures. /RTY is down about 0.50%, and probing yesterday’s lows. I think today will be an important session for /RTY, as we look to see if the pullback from last week’s strong bounce accelerates, or if we reverse back higher to make a run at the key POC cluster of resistance between 1775-1783.
Dish Network (DISH) reporting earnings before the bell on Monday morning. Early trading had the stock trading down nearly 20%. Let’s take a look at the charts and the earnings to see what happened. Both earnings and revenue surprised to the downside. Earnings came in with a surprise loss of 26 cents per share, versus expectations of a profit of 11 cents per share. Revenue came in at $3.7 billion, versus expectations of $3.82 billion.
Looking at charts below we can see the scope of the damage. The first chart shows DISH since mid-2021. After Covid, DISH topped before the broader market, and has steadily been in decline ever since. The stock is down roughly 90% since mid-2021. Today’s large drop sent the stock to new lows.
(more…)November is here. A wild 2023 continues to fly by unrestrained. In my last post, Autumn Fall, I was looking for weakness to take hold in the markets from the beginning of August through the end of November. The weakness that we have seen over the past three months in markets is what I was anticipating, with roughly 20% declines in IWM and IYR. As we enter into the beginning of November I ask the question: Is the selling over for this year, or will there be more bearish opportunities in November?
To attempt to answer that question we’ll be looking at the crude oil analog, as well as the November setups for IWM, SPY, IYR, and XLF. The crude oil analog below is the chart that I showed in Autumn Fall. The red box in the top left is the time period of August – November 2013, which should be echoing through the broader market August – November 2023. The analog is not anticipating the weakness in the broader market to stop until the end of November, followed by a December bounce.
(more…)This article discusses one diverse component of the broad global markets; the US S&P 500. The market has some poor underpinnings that we routinely keep track of in NFTRH and are beyond the scope of this public article. Also beyond the scope are macro risk indicators, including the US dollar and its relationship with the Gold/Silver ratio.
Filtering all of that out, we have anticipated a seasonal bounce or rally due to market sentiment well biased to over-bearish, oversold conditions and the seasonal pattern (on average) for SPX that has turned up, as per this graphic first presented in NFTRH 779 on October 15.
(more…)Well, after my initial examination of earnings reactions (prior post), it seems AAPL wasn’t done. Once the conference call was out of the way, the AAPL drop went from tiny to not-as-tiny.
