Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Band Ride – Day 7?

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Yesterday was the sixth day of this ride up the daily upper band, and may well have been the last. Albeit SPX closed green it was the weakest day of the band ride so far, and never quite reached the upper band during the day, though it closed not far short. Fewer than 25% of band rides last more than six days, and fewer than 15% more than seven days, so the band ride is most likely over or ending shortly.

SPX has not quite reached my ideal rising wedge resistance trendline in the 1930-2 area, but it has hit an alternate and perfectly valid trendline at the high yesterday, so while SPX may go higher, equally it may not. If the high was yesterday then in all probability the likely opening gap today will not be filled. SPX daily chart:

140603 SPX Daily Rising Wedge

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US Treasury Bonds, Gold & Stock Market

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The following is one of a wide range of analytical topics covered in NFTRH 293’s 35 pages this week, much of which is straight ahead technical analysis. But the T Bond market is usually central to an overall macro view at any given time. This segment is not meant to provide actionable direction (other than perhaps to prepare for a potential rise in T bonds yields), it is meant to dig into the mechanics beneath the financial markets in an effort to have people consider that there is much more going on with markets than simple nominal TA or conventional fundamental analysis (PE ratios, growth metrics, reported economic data, etc.) can account for. (more…)

Band Ride – Day Five

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Yesterday completed day four of the daily upper band ride by my count and I have had a look at these over the last five years to look at the amount of time these lasted. None were longer than ten days, and by definition they had to last at least three days, so the distribution was as follows:

3 Days – 3x
4 Days – 5x
5 Days – 6x
6 Days – 4x
7 Days – 3x
8 Days – 2x
9 Days – 2x
10 Days – 1x

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Daily Band Rides

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Yesterday was day three of the current ride on the daily upper band. These rides are where there is a strong trend in either direction using either the daily upper or lower band as the anchor for the daily candles. Yesterday was a decent example, closing within 0.20 points of the daily upper band. These band rides vary widely in length, it isn’t uncommon to end after three or four days and they can extend to seven or eight. The last two band rides on this chart lasted nine and five days respectively. SPX daily chart:

140529 SPX Daily Patterns BBs MAs

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Bonds – Up, Up, and Away!

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I haven’t traded bonds (via TLT) in a while, but I’ve been watching them with interest (heh). I read this morning how all the big boys shorted the bejesus out of the bond market early this year and are seeing their positions get ripped to shreds. I think plenty more ripping is in store. The smart money, it seems, understand bonds as a safe haven for the shitstorm that’s forthcoming.

0528-TLT

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