Interest – Page 90 – Slope of Hope with Tim Knight

Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Stretched

By springheel_jack - 12 years ago (10, Jun 2014 6:27:48 AM)

When I looked at daily upper bollinger band rides a few days ago, I found twenty six examples in the last five years. The longest of those was ten days and there was only one of those. Yesterday was the eleventh day of the current daily upper band ride, so this band ride has already beaten the actuarial odds by quite a margin. Will it reverse today? Maybe, the overnight low was low than the Sunday night low, and that is a start at least.

SPX broke over resistance on the rising wedge from 1737 last week and while this may still be a bearish overthrow, SPX would need to break back below broken wedge resistance (1930 area) in the near future. Alternatively the wedge may be evolving into a channel, but in that case I would expect to see at least a test of 2000. SPX daily chart: (more…)

US Dollar and Bonds

By springheel_jack - 12 years ago (09, Jun 2014 4:26:26 PM)

No equity charts today as I covered that pretty thoroughly in my post yesterday. You can see that here if you missed it. Today I’m going to have a look at USD and bonds.

For the last few months I’ve had mixed feelings about USD, as there were, and still are, strong bull and bear scenarios. Last year I gave key support on USD at 78.6 and USD came close to testing that in May. However the marginal new low made in May didn’t challenge 78.6, and I’m increasingly leaning bullish. The daily RSI 5 is signalling a decent retracement here, but as long as the May low at 78.93 holds this retracement should be a buy, and I’d expect the next move up to test main double bottom resistance in the 81.5 area. USD daily chart: (more…)

The Fatted Calf

By springheel_jack - 12 years ago (05, Jun 2014 6:30:58 AM)

The level of bear despair yesterday was impressive, and the percentage of bulls is now 62.2%, as compared to previous highs at 61.6% at the end of 2013, 62% in October 2007, 62.9% in December 2000 and 60.8% in August 2007. All of these previous readings were signals that large rallies were ….. um …….. ending, and that significant highs were being made.

I was delighted yesterday to identify the pattern for the current move, when the low yesterday established a perfect rising channel from the last lows at 1862. This is excellent news as we now have a clear marker for when the current move is ending at the break of channel support there. That break will signal that this move is topped or topping, though a retest of the highs would be routine after such a break, so it would be important not to jump on that break too hard when it happens. SPX 5min chart: (more…)

Sliding Off The Upper Band

By springheel_jack - 12 years ago (04, Jun 2014 5:59:40 AM)

After a six day band ride SPX fell away slightly from the daily upper band yesterday, though it didn’t fall far, and the promising bearish look of the open faded swiftly. It is still possible that the band ride could continue another day or two, but if so we would need to see SPX return to upper band resistance today, and that would be in the 1932-6 area. It’s more likely however that we will see more retracement or consolidation over the next day or two. SPX daily chart:

(more…)

Interest Rate Gap

By Tim Knight - 12 years ago (03, Jun 2014 11:59:19 AM)

Interest rates have been zooming higher the past four days. I think an important level to watch is the gap on $TNX at 26.11 (that is, a rate of 2.611%). If it stllls there and starts working lower, the drop in interest rates will probably accelerate to new lows for the year.