Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Two Triangles and A Megaphone

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SPX fell hard on Friday, made the smaller double top target and broke down from the larger double top. Shortly after the LOD SPX broke up from a falling wedge that I called on twitter, and closed the day at a retest of broken larger double bottom support. The retracement low may be in, and if we are to see a fail without another test of triangle resistance in the 2011 area then I’ll be looking for resistance at the 50% and 61.8% retracements on the falling wedge, in the 2092 and 2096.5 areas respectively. The 50 hour MA closed Friday at 2096 and is key resistance today. SPX 15min chart:

150420 SPX 15min Triangle and Internal Patterns

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Uptrend Support Tested and Held

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SPX found support just at the 50 hour MA yesterday and bounced from there into the close, though not with great conviction. I posted the chart below on twitter last night noting the rising channel that had been established, and that as long as that channel held this morning then the next obvious target is now a retest of the all time high at 2119.59. SPX 15min chart:

150414-C SPX 15min Rising Channel

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Retesting Broken Resistance as Support

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I was talking yesterday morning about the likelihood that SPX would retest broken resistance as support and it took a while, but that was tested at the close yesterday. We could see SPX go a bit lower this morning but what we saw yesterday may well be all. My bull/bear line is at 2068/9 this morning, with the SPX daily middle band now at 2073.5, the 50 hour MA now at 2072.5, and the 5 DMA at 2070. SPX 5DMA chart:

150408 SPX 5DMA 2015

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The Right Kind of Triangle

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SPX broke back above the daily middle band at 2078 and unless we see a strong reversal candle today that negates that break up, the obvious next target is over 2100. ES has been very weak overnight and we could see that strong daily reversal candle today, so I have the odds of more upside here in the 75% area with 25% odds on a break back down. If we see a break back down that breaks the 2039.69 low, then we may well see a move to the double top target in the 1960 area. SPX daily chart:

150331 SPX Daily Rising Wedge BBs MAs

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Support at the 50 Hour MA

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SPX didn’t make it to my minimum retracement target at 2080 as it made a perfect touch of the 50 hour MA and reversed hard there. That does tend to be solid support in uptrends until they are into the topping process and, as I was saying on Friday morning, this uptrend doesn’t look finished yet.

I am considering the possibility that a rising wedge from the October low is still forming and have drawn in that possible rising wedge support trendline in blue dotted line on the chart below. If that is the case then there is a very obvious target in the 2120-5 area at the intersection of the original wedge support trendline and the wedge resistance trendline. That is the first area of resistance that I am watching. SPX 60min chart:

150223 SPX 60min Trendlines BBs MAs

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