The rumors are flying so fast, even Tyler is having trouble keeping up…….
Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
Key Inflection Point Here …. Again
After an incredibly whippy day yesterday the close left a very strong bull setup on SPX. This may just be a bull trap but if so, it is a very thorough and well put together bull trap, and at the least I am impressed.
The pattern setup here is a falling megaphone from the last hit of range resistance in the 12064 SPX area, and that isn’t inherently bullish here as it has already broken up and retraced 50%. What does look bullish is the possible double bottom targeting the 2069 area on a sustained break over 2025. SPX 5min chart:
Technical Difficulties Today
I’ve been having a few technical problems this morning with my main computer, and currently have no ability to edit charts at Stockcharts and browser access only to my main broken. I should have these issues fixed later but for now I’ll be using charts I did yesterday and a futures chart for CL.
There are clear bull & bear scenarios here and I’m leaning strongly towards the bear scenario, but with the strong awareness also that there is a huge wild card today in the shape of the Fed at 2pm, so I’m keeping an open mind.
The bull scenario is on the SPX daily chart that I posted on twitter yesterday afternoon, and that is showing that the low yesterday was a decent retest of broken falling wedge resistance from the all time high. If that low holds we would now see a break over range resistance at 2064 and at least a test of the all time high. SPX daily chart:
Bonds Ready to Sink?
Bonds have been in a virtually uninterrupted uptrend since New Year’s Eve on 2013. Looking at interest rates, I wonder to myself if we have turned the corner and are heading into higher rates….
Suspended Sentence
Another day of selling yesterday, and SPX has lost over 2% over the first three trading days of 2015. This is fairly rare, having only happened eight times in the last 44 years, and it puts SPX on the clock for a possible rarer setup that would make the prospects for the remainder of the year look bleak.
Of those eight examples, three managed to close January above the close on that third day, which in this case would be 2002.61. Those three examples all put in excellent years, with the lowest rising 14.75% and the other two rising slightly over 26%. That is the SPX ‘get out of jail free card’ option.
Of the five others that closed January below the close on the third day, the best two full year performances were 1% and 3% gains, the next two lost 10% and 11% on the year, and the last lost an impressive 39% on the year (2008). If January closes below 2002.61, the historical stats would therefore suggest that the likely best case scenario would be a flat year. (more…)
