The world is getting hyped up about bond yields lately with bonds of all stripes declining, as if we are in the midst of a debt Armageddon (we are and have been in the midst of a decades-long and still intact ‘debt for growth’ Ponzi operation). Here is some perspective…
Slope of Hope Blog Posts
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Bounce Coming on Bonds ……. Probably
SPX broke the short term rising channel yesterday as well as the daily middle band. I’m not seeing any strong reason to think that yesterday’s low won’t be retested and if so there is strong support at the last significant low and the weekly middle band, both at 2072. A break and particularly a close below would open up a test of double top support at 2039. Overhead resistance is at the daily middle band at 2096 and bulls really need to get back over and hold over the 50 hour MA at 2108. SPX daily chart:
Hello, Negative Interest!
Well, negative interest rates have finally hit close to home: I got this notice from my prime broker this morning. Apparently, if I’m obnoxious enough to actually leave cash in my account, I’ll pay for the privilege.
The (Seemingly) Eternal Triangle
We’ve now seen an epic six tests of triangle resistance on SPX. I’m expecting it to break up but starting to wonder if I’ll live long enough to see that happen (j/k). Expecting to see another run at that today and hopefully this time it will break up. SPX 60min chart:
Triangles do eventually have to break of course, and the TLT triangle broke down yesterday. That move also broke the double top and I’m expecting to reach pattern targets in the 125-6 area. I would then expect to see a lower low under 122.71 on the way to targets much lower. TLT 60min chart:
I’m leaning towards a bull break over triangle resistance today. If we see a hard reversal down instead I’d note that a break below yesterday’s low at 2091.05 would trigger a double top target in the 2072 area at a retest of Monday’s low at 2072.37. A break below that would invite a test of triangle support in the 2055 area. I’d be surprised to see that but it’s worth bearing in mind.
Too Many Triangles Lately
Very late post today as I was out much of the morning and I’ve had a busy open.
SPX failed just under triangle resistance yesterday and I have open 5min & 15min sell signals here. I’m looking for SPX to most likely test the globex low in the 2083-7 area before another test of triangle resistance. If Monday’s low at 2072.37 is broken, that would open up a test of triangle support in the 2055 area. SPX 15min chart:
