Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
The bounce yesterday was at an obvious level for the short term bull case, but lower lows on ES and EURUSD overnight are less encouraging. There's not much to work with on ES at the moment in terms of trendlines but I did come up with a short term rising channel that has just broken as I've been writing. There is some support at 1260.5 that is holding so far but if that breaks then a move down to 1244 is on the cards:
There have been quite a few people saying that as EURUSD has kept falling since late November while equities have rallied, then that means that these have decoupled and the relationship is no longer important. As we saw yesterday that simply isn't the case. While it is true that the multi-week trends on them have decoupled for the moment, as is often the case, on the daily timescales a big move down or up on EURUSD will still generally be shadowed by a move on equities.
Short term I'm still using TRAN as my leading index for equities, and the obvious next move there within the ascending triangle is to rising triangle support in the 4900 area. That should roughly equate to a move to the 1225/30 area on ES, and that's where I'm expecting this move to finish as ascending triangles break up 70% of the time:
One thing I aways look around for in the event that trendlines aren't lining up that well on SPX is another major index that may have assumed the lead for the time being. That index for the moment is the Transports index, and I say that because the last low there was a perfect hit of the rising support trendline from the October low. On the transports index I'm seeing what looks like a 70% bullish ascending triangle, which just needs (ideally) another reversal from the upper resistance trendline to confirm it. That resistance level is now 2% above and 'll be seeing that as strong resistance this week:
