Today is the last trading day before Xmas of course, volume will be low and we might not see a lot happen. I'll take this opportunity to mix in some longer term charts to the mix today to reflect on what trend, if any, might be emerging from this long road to nowhere this year. SPX reached 1255 yesterday, just under the 1257 break-even level for the year. It looks like it might open a little higher but whatever happens in the five remaining trading days this year, this won't have been a year where equities in the US will have moved much overall.
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Seeking Alphahorn (by Springheel Jack)
I called the retest of 1225 ES as the retest target yesterday morning and the low was at 1223. Pretty close. The SPX low was 1229 which was called as the likely target by both of my EW analyst friends Pug and Alphahorn. Both of them are seeing the 1257 level as the next really important resistance level, and that fits with the 1257-60 SPX level that I've been talking about. I have done another SPX daily chart showing the importance of this area, with the breakeven level on SPX for 2011 at 1257, and declining resistance from July and the daily 200 SMA in the 1259/60 area. The daily 200 SMA is a very important bull/bear market dividing line of course, and both attempts to recover above it in October and November were very short-lived:
Bullish Bond Breakout Busted
Big Trendlines (by Springheel Jack)
Well that was a face-ripper rally yesterday, and it isn't that often that you see a major distribution day followed by a major accumulation day. We do see that often enough however to compile statistics on performance afterwards, and as my friend Cobra points out, the chances of a down day today are very high. Here's Cobra's chart on this from last night below, and you can see his full post here:
