Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

An Analysis of Past Ideas

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UPDATE: The original post is below, but in an amazing “duh” moment, I realized how easy  it would be to automatically have the latest stock prices in the spreadsheet, so I modified it to show those. After doing so, the profit results improved by over 30% (as of this writing). I frankly can’t believe I was so dim that I hand-entered the quotes originally, but the bottom line is that the profits were better than originally reported.

From time to time, people ask if I have some kind of spreadsheet that tracks the results of my various ideas. Over the many, many years this website has been around, I’ve never done so, but I decided to take an afternoon to compile an analysis of a couple of “Premium” videos I did early in October 2018. Although these videos were behind a paywall, you can view video one and video two freely now.

I entered all these ideas into a publicly-viewable spreadsheet, which shows each symbol, its closing price on October 5th (when I made the videos), and its closing price seven weeks later (when I did the analysis). They were all short ideas, and the results speak for themselves.

snip (more…)

“Harbinger of Doom”: Amigo 3 in Play, But Real Doom Awaits

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“The Harbinger of Doom”? Of course we (well, the media) are talking about the yield curve AKA Amigo #3 of our 3 happy-go-lucky riders of the macro. I have annoyed you repeatedly with this imagery in order to show that three important macro factors needed to finish riding before situation turns decidedly negative.

Amigo 1: SPX (or stocks in general)/Gold Ratio

Amigo 2: 30 Year Treasury Yield

Amigo 3: Yield Curve

In honor of Amigo 3’s arrival to prime time let’s have a good old fashioned Amigos update (going in reverse order) and see if we can annoy a few more people along the way. 🙂 (more…)

Another View of China (by Binkius Hippo)

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Chinese Communist dynasty emperor Xi knows they’ve blown the biggest bubble in the history of humankind. All measures being taken by Communists are to ensure the survival of the party when this bubble eventually pops. Dynastic succession in China usually involves the losers’ entrails being paraded around Tiananmen square (or other significant public gathering place), so this is about survival. Politics, economics and ideology are secondary.

The Communist dynasty knows that the bubble will pop and they will lose the mandate of heaven (economic prosperity). The only way they can stay in power is if the blame can be diverted. Trump is heaven’s gift to the Communist dynasty. EVERYTHING can be blamed on Trump. The Communist dynasty will play the nationalism card – having been attacked by Trump. The Chinese will rally around this. Trade was forced on China (Most Favored Nation was a punitive trade measure against China by the western powers) and now Trump is going back against trade treaties designed to humiliate China since the Boxer Rebellion. (more…)