Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

“Canaries” About to Fall Off Their Perch? (by SB)

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My three Fed Stimulus Program "Canaries" are
beginning to lose steam after today's (Wednesday's) gap up and fade on
negatively diverging RSI, as shown on the Daily ratio charts
below.

Such is also the case on the European and Chinese
Financials ETFs (compared with the SPX), as shown on the following
Daily ratio charts.

Perhaps the noxious gases from
the "Fiscal Cliff" discussions are beginning to have an effect,
as traders take profits, before the U.S., potentially, goes over the cliff at
the end of this month. Both political parties seem as far apart as ever, with no
resolution in sight.

(more…)

EUR/USD Approaching a Confluence of Resistance (by SB)

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The EUR/USD forex pair is approaching a confluence of
resistance at 1.3200-1.3250ish as it rallies towards the underside of a former
"diamond" pattern/apex, as shown on the Weekly chart below. I'd
expect to see a bull/bear tug-of-war around this level before it either
continues upward, or reverses somewhat.

It is, currently, still under
the bearish influence of a moving average "Death Cross" formation and, as
such, is subject to further (and, potentially, large) downdrafts. Caution may be
warranted at the moment, which may negatively affect, and produce a drag on, any
bull scenario in U.S. equities, in the near term.

Money Flow for December Week Two (by SB)

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SB's NOTE: Sorry about the length of this post, folks, but it's not really as bad as if first looks!

Further to my last weekly market update, this week's update will look
at:

  • 6 Major Indices
  • 9 Major Sectors
  • Germany, France, and the PIIGS Indices
  • Emerging Markets ETF (EEM), the BRIC Indices, and the BRIC ETF (BKF)
  • Canada, Japan, Britain, Australia, and World Market Indices
  • Commodity and Agriculture ETFs (DBC and DBA), Gold, Oil, Copper, and Silver
  • 7 Major Currencies
  • Ratio Charts comparing the SPX to other Major World Indices

(more…)

The Fed Stimulus Program “Canaries-in-the-Coal-Mine” (by SB)

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The Fed's new monetary stimulus program announced today
(Wednesday) is geared towards shoring up the housing/mortgage market which, they
hope, will, in turn, stimulate consumer/corporate/investor confidence and job
growth. This has been their intent since they began a variety of monetary
stimulus programs in 2008.

In this regard, it may be prudent to monitor
the relationship between the financial markets and the SPX, and the housing
markets and the SPX, in order to (generally) gauge the strength of market faith
in the viability of such an outcome as we go forward over the next year. No
doubt, these markets may produce short-term volatile reactions to various
economic data points as they are released during this period. What will be of
interest is whether any one particular release affects the general trend in such
a way as to produce a reversal.

As such, I present the following two
Daily ratio charts of the XLF:SPX (Financials
ETF) and the XHB:SPX (Homebuilders ETF). At the moment, both
the XLF and XHB Sectors are trading weaker compared to the SPX. The RSI
Indicator has been in decline since September of this year. The XHB is
relatively weaker compared to the SPX than is the XLF. In the near term, a drop
and hold below current support on XHB:SPX, together with a failure to regain and
hold above current resistance on XLF:SPX, may lead to a pull back in both of
these Sectors. Furthermore, a drop and hold below the 50 sma (which serves as a
support level on the general uptrend) may signal a trend reversal for both
Sectors, which could send price down to the 200 sma…ones to watch over the
next weeks and months.