Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Money Flow for December Week 4 (by SB)

By -

Further to my last weekly market update, this week's update will look
at:

  • 6 Major Indices
  • 9 Major Sectors
  • Index/Volatility Ratio Charts
  • 30-Year Bonds
  • U.S. $
  • EUR/USD
  • Fed Monetary Stimulus Program "Canaries"

Last week I
said:

"In summary, we may continue to see volatile
intraday/overnight swings with little follow-through on lower volumes, until the
"Fiscal Cliff" issue is settled and until the end of the year, as fund managers
re-organize their portfolios for the 2012 year-end and Q4. At the moment, equity
markets still appear to be hedged in Bonds and the U.S. $ as they trade near
major resistance levels…this will likely continue until a convincing and
sustained breakout occurs in equities. As well, I continue to watch the Fed monetary stimulus program
"canaries" and the 1.3250ish resistance level on the
EUR/USD forex pair as possible indicators of equity weakness
that may become a cause for concern by bulls…at the moment, they are
signalling caution, as I discussed in those two articles this
week."

(more…)

I Smell Another Credit Rating Downgrade Coming Soon (by SB)

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With both parties in disagreement on reaching a comprehensive
“Fiscal Cliff” deal that aggressively reduces government spending and raises
taxes, and with the debt ceiling limit about to be breached (and probably
inflated to unimaginable, out-of-control levels), I smell another U.S. credit
rating downgrade coming soon…possibly to ring in the New Year.

I think
“government
inaction/complacency/impotency with power turned over to the Central
Bank” would best describe 2012…for most countries of the
world.

Who’s in charge?

Update on SPX/VIX 2012 Complacency Odds (by SB)

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My post of February 28th of this year gave an 80% chance of
another spike on the VIX this year. While that scenario threatened to occur
mid-year, volatility subsided and has remained relatively quiet this year.
However, with only three trading days left, I thought I'd provide an update on
this topic.

The Weekly chart below shows the VIX
pushing up against a major resistance level around
20.00. A close and hold above 20.00 may produce such a
spike…if not this year, then in (possibly early) 2013.

(more…)

Japan’s Nikkei Approaching Major Resistance Levels (by SB)

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The Weekly chart below shows that Japan's Nikkei E-mini
Futures Index is just below major resistance levels. We may start to
see choppy (and potentially volatile) trading from today's (Wednesday's) high of 10390 up to
10900-11300ish until it either pulls back or continues upwards.

As you
can see, it's had great difficulty staying above the 10390 level since the index
began its rally after the lows of 2008/09. We'll see whether the government's
money-printing program continues to translate into a continued equity push up,
in spite of these technical limitations/constraints.

Money Flow for December Week Three (by SB)

By -

Further to my last weekly market update, this week's update will look
at:

  • 6 Major Indices
  • 9 Major Sectors
  • Index/Volatility Ratio Charts
  • 30-Year Bonds
  • U.S. $

6 Major Indices

Inasmuch as today (Friday) was a Quadruple Options
Expiration, I'm showing the following chartgrid, where each candle
represents a 1-month options expiration period. You can see that the
current candle, which closed today, basically, bounced at/near the mid-Bollinger
Band. Price is stuck within a sideways range and is at/near major resistance.

(more…)