Trade Balance data published today (Friday) shows an
increased goods and services deficit for the U.S. and Canada, as shown on the
graphs below.
Trade Balance Deficit Widens (by Strawberry Blonde)
Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
Money Flow for January Week One 2013 (by Strawberry Blonde)
Further to my last weekly market update, this week's update will look
at:
- 6 Major Indices
- 9 Major Sectors
- VIX
- Index/Volatility Ratio Charts
- 30-Year Bonds
- U.S. $
- 3 Days/Candle Charts on 7 Major Indices
***PLEASE NOTE that I've
had to provide links only to my charts and graphs as my Blogger is not working
properly tonight (Friday)…my apologies for this.
Wednesday’s Volatility Crush (by Strawberry Blonde)
With today's (Wednesday's) "gap-up-and-go" action on the SPX, RUT, and NDX,
volatility got crushed, as shown on the three Daily ratio
charts below.
The SPX:VIX ratio closed just
above trendline resistance. I'd say, if price can hold above
95.00, it has a good chance of going higher, provided the
Momentum indicator stays above the zero level now.
The RUT:RVX
ratio closed at major resistance. I'd say, if price can hold
above 46.00, it has a good chance of going higher, provided the
Momentum indicator stays above the zero level now.
The NDX:VXN
ratio closed in between trendline resistance and support. I'd say, if
price can hold above 150.00, it has a good chance of going
higher, provided the Momentum indicator stays above the zero level now.
As shown on the
Daily charts below, and looking at a bigger picture, there is
still plenty of room in a larger channel from the June 2012 lows on the SPX and
NDX before they hit their upper channel, while the upper channel is much closer
at around 890.00 on the RUT. Whether the RUT hits its upper
channel and continues to run higher without either consolidating or pulling back
remains to be seen, if the SPX and NDX continue their rally…one to
watch for continued leadership, particularly after making it's all-time
high/closing high today.
Gap #? on the TF (by Strawberry Blonde)
I'm aware of three types of gaps — usually occurring in a sequence in a
trend:
- Gap 1 = Breakaway Gap
- Gap 2 = Continuation Gap
- Gap 3 = Exhaustion Gap
We'll see, in time, if today's
(Wednesday's) gap on the TF is a Continuation Gap. If so, then it has a long way
to, ultimately, run before it hits the third type…essentially another 100
points, or so, to around 950…although, not likely straight up! I would note
that the Breakaway Gap (which began the current uptrend) remains
unfilled.
Since the formation on the 60 min (market hours only) chart
below resembles that of an inverted Head & Shoulders, this target could be
actualized…the timing, however, is unknown.
Price could,
potentially, simply continue rising along the upper edge of the channel (shown
on the 60 min market hours only chart below) to defy any overbought conditions.
Or, it could zig-zag upwards within the channel to reach 950-970 by the end of
February 2013. That would tie in with the date by which Congress will have to
reach an agreement on the rest of the "Fiscal Cliff" issues, as well as raise
the "Debt Ceiling Limit."
potentially, simply continue rising along the upper edge of the channel (shown
on the 60 min market hours only chart below) to defy any overbought conditions.
Or, it could zig-zag upwards within the channel to reach 950-970 by the end of
February 2013. That would tie in with the date by which Congress will have to
reach an agreement on the rest of the "Fiscal Cliff" issues, as well as raise
the "Debt Ceiling Limit."
2012 Market Wrap-Up for U.S. Major Indices (by Strawberry Blonde)
***[First of all, I'd like to take this opportunity to thank Tim Knight for allowing me to post my articles here…and to thank Slopers for all your kind remarks on my work. You've all made my life easier this year and more fun. As well, I've learned a great deal from others who post here and from those Slopers who participate in the Comments section…thank you!]
Here's what I wrote one year ago about 2011:
"2011…what
a year! A year of social unrest, demonstrations, riots, government overthrows,
mass murders, earthquakes, tsunamis, floods, nuclear reactor meltdowns,
political discord, economic distress (the "R" word has resurfaced), austerity,
financial weakness, credit rating downgrades, volatility, financial fraud, law
suits, assassinations, and the passing of Steve Jobs…no wonder the markets
have been so reactive (sometimes quite violently) rather than proactive in a
measured manner."
and
"The question will be
whether stability returns to the European markets and whether recent stability
can hold and improve in Emerging Markets for 2012, or whether volatility (VIX)
will rise again…the VIX is still elevated, so there is a good possibility that
it will. No doubt, all market action will be reflective of upcoming world news
events, as well as consumer and investor sentiment, together with risk vs safety
appetite. A couple of gauges that I'll follow in this regard are the VIX, U.S.
$, and Copper, as well as the other instruments noted above. Without benefit of
major Fed QE intervention, I imagine that next year could be
range-bound…within this year's high and low, generally…although unforeseen
catastrophes could send the Major Indices below this year's
lows."
