Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

12/12/12 FOMC Rate Announcement (by SB)

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Here is the link for today's (Wednesday's) FOMC press release
regarding their interest rate and asset purchase decisions following their
two-day meeting:
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20121212a.htm

This
excerpt explains their current timeline and parameters relative to the continued
implementation of this low interest rate:

"In particular, the
Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to
1/4 percent and currently anticipates that this exceptionally low range for the
federal funds rate will be appropriate at least as long as the unemployment rate
remains above 6-1/2 percent, inflation between one and two years ahead is
projected to be no more than a half percentage point above the Committee’s 2
percent longer-run goal, and longer-term inflation expectations continue to be
well anchored."

The Federal Funds Rate will be
maintained at 0.25%, as shown on the graph below.

Equity markets
rallied after this news, and, on the Major Indices,
the SPX and RUT are currently trading above their major uptrend line from the
October 2011 lows, the DJI is backtesting its trendline, and the NDX is still
trading well below its trendline, as shown on the Weekly charts
below.

Bulls should be looking for the DJI to break and hold
above this trendline and for the NDX to follow suit (as well as for the SPX and
RUT to hold above their trendlines). Otherwise, we may see another break and
possible test of this year's lows, or lower.

Money Flow for December Week One (by SB)

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Further to my last weekly market update, this week's update will look
at:

  • + 6 Major Indices
  • + 9 Major Sectors
  • + Germany, France, and the PIIGS Indices
  • + Emerging Markets ETF (EEM), the BRIC Indices, and the BRIC ETF (BKF)
  • + Canada, Japan, Britain, Australia, and World Market Indices
  • + Commodity and Agriculture ETFs (DBC and DBA), Gold, Oil, Copper, and Silver
  • + 7 Major Currencies
  • + Major Trendline Breaks on 7 Major Indices
  • + 30-Year Bonds


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AAPL Update

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I last wrote about AAPL here and here. I'll provide an update on where AAPL is relative to
price and relative to the NDX.

The updated 5-Year
Weekly chart below of AAPL shows that a Head & Shoulders
pattern may be forming, with declining right shoulder and neckline within its
rising 4-year channel.

The first support level (below a
potential neckline) is found at a confluence of a 40% Fibonacci retracement
level, a 127.2% External Fibonacci retracement level, and the bottom of the
channel at a price of 465.61.

The next (and
major) support level sits at a confluence of price (consolidation), a
50% Fibonacci retracement, a 161.8% External Fibonacci retracement level, and a
50% Fibonacci fanline level at a price of 400.00ish.



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