springheel_jack – Page 144 – Slope of Hope with Tim Knight

Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

After The Low Window

By springheel_jack - 9 years ago (24, Oct 2016 12:34:29 PM)

The low window on SPX ended on Friday, and there wasn’t much at the weekend to suggest that prices would go lower this week. With RUT testing main rising wedge support at the low on Friday and NDX retesting the all time highs today, there’s not much to cheer the bears that has happened since. If you want to see that support hit on RUT, you can see that on Friday’s post here.

On the daily chart the key resistance level is the daily middle band at 2149, and SPX has been trading around that today. Bulls need a closing break above it and a confirming close above the next day. Bears would obviously like to avoid that if possible. The tape itself seems fairly indifferent, particularly in the afternoons in recent months. SPX daily chart:

(more…)

One Retracement Target Hit Today

By springheel_jack - 9 years ago (21, Oct 2016 3:18:31 PM)

Bears started off with a great setup today with an H&S breaking down with a target at 2107.5 (approx 2113/4 SPX), and just a bit more work needed in the first hour to deliver a trend down day. They entirely failed to manage that, and ES has drifted up slowly the rest of the day. This may have been the bears’ last decent chance to make lower low on this move as the low window ends on Tuesday. It was very likely the last chance to start a move that could break 2100 with any force. ES Dec 60min chart:

(more…)

Three Day Rule – Day Three

By springheel_jack - 9 years ago (20, Oct 2016 12:31:48 PM)

Today is the third day on the three day rule and bears can trigger the rule with a close today at 2134 or below, approximately 2168 on ES. That was tested at the low today and is holding as support so far. Bears have dominated the closes recently, so we may not know for sure until the close. If the rule triggers then a lower low on this retracement before a new ATH is almost certain. If the rule doesn’t trigger I’ll be getting significantly more doubtful about lower lows. With ES at 2135.50 at the time of writing I’m leaning 65/35 in favor of the bear side. SPX daily 5dma chart:

(more…)

Back On The Three Day Rule

By springheel_jack - 9 years ago (20, Oct 2016 4:36:59 AM)

Yesterday’s close was a break back over the 5dma, so SPX is back on the three day rule. In the event that SPX closes more than two handles below the 5dma today or tomorrow, then the 2114 low would very likely be retested shortly afterwards.

One thing that’s very interesting on this chart below is the support/resistance zone highlighted in yellow. Since the start of 2015 that has held an impressive 14 short term highs and we could be looking at the second low since it was broken.

(more…)

Testing Resistance Too Often

By springheel_jack - 9 years ago (18, Oct 2016 8:19:15 AM)

I posted my daily premarket video for subscribers to the Daily Video Service at the artofchart.net on twitter this morning, because there was a serious chance of a bull breakout on the opening setup. That’s fading a bit now, with SPX failing at the retest of the 50 hour MA at 2141, but it’s still possible, and on a break above then main (closing) resistance is at the daily middle band in the 2153 area. You can see that premarket video here. SPX daily chart:

(more…)