springheel_jack – Page 145 – Slope of Hope with Tim Knight

Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

British Tulips On Sale

By springheel_jack - 9 years ago (14, Oct 2016 9:20:29 AM)

The opening setup this morning was complex so I tweeted the premarket video I recorded this morning for Daily Video Service subscribers at theartofchart.net on my main twitter this morning at the open. If you missed that you can see that here.

In summary there is a chance today for bulls to shut down the bear scenario here off yesterday’s bounce at the 3sd daily lower band. Bulls would need to break back over the daily middle band, currently at 2154, and a decent match with the ES monthly pivot at 2146. Obviously they would also in that event need to avoid a reversal candle on Monday cancelling the bull breakout.

That prospect is receding a bit now, as the best shot for bulls at doing that today was the possible trend day that was developing, but that’s looking unlikely now. I’m still very much leaning short, but there is a bull scenario here and we need to be aware of it. ES Dec 60min chart:

(more…)

Testing Double Top Support

By springheel_jack - 9 years ago (13, Oct 2016 12:13:55 PM)

The rally on SPX was muted yesterday and SPX gapped through main rising wedge support this morning. I’m expecting this to follow though, though today has so far been about retesting that broken wedge support. That’s being retested now and if it holds as resistance then the next leg down should deliver a less brief break through double top support at 2119. SPX daily chart:

(more…)

The Road To 2047

By springheel_jack - 9 years ago (12, Oct 2016 11:27:50 AM)

The bears did a lot of technical damage yesterday, and managed to both break down from the SPX triangle and briefly break below rising wedge support from the February low. I’m expecting more downside.

When a triangle like this breaks there is a sequence from that break. First there is a backtest of broken triangle support, often going back into the triangle, and we are watching that at the moment. Then the main thrust out of the triangle starts, and after that ends, the thrust is usually fully retraced. So far the backtest is forming a very decent looking shallow rising megaphone that is very likely to be a bear flag on this setup. When that breaks down the main triangle thrust down should be in progress. SPX 1min chart:

(more…)

Triangle Support Broken

By springheel_jack - 9 years ago (11, Oct 2016 9:56:20 AM)

Well I won’t say the triangle didn’t have me a bit worried yesterday, with the solid low at triangle support on Friday and the near miss of triangle resistance on SPX. The break down through triangle support this morning however pretty much kills off the bull triangle scenario and this should be the start of the move down that Stan and I have been expecting. SPX 15min chart:

(more…)

Still In The Triangle

By springheel_jack - 9 years ago (10, Oct 2016 11:42:57 AM)

The high window ended at the close on Friday and I’m leaning short into the end of October. Does this mean that SPX cannot make a new all time high in the next few days? No. Bears need to do some damage to support to open up the downside and the Friday low at triangle support wasn’t good enough. That is the key support that needs to be broken, as until that is broken, a triangle may well still be forming. The high so far today on SPX is not far away from triangle resistance. SPX 15min chart:

(more…)