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Most of the afternoons lately have been impressively dull and they all seems to merge into each other after a while. the main takeaway from yesterday and last night though was that, so far at least, the ES weekly pivot at 2128.75 (2133/4 SPX area) has been very solid resistance. As long as that remains the case the obvious next target is at least a retest of the last low at 2112.5 ES (2117.5 SPX area). ES Dec 60min chart:
As downtrends go this has been uninspiring, but a lower low was made on Friday and I’m wondering about a possible flag channel support hit in the 2095 area. SPX daily chart:
I have a fairly hectic work schedule nowadays and I’ve been struggling to get everything done. an obvious way to save time would be to give up writing this blog, but I’m not going to do that, as I really enjoy writing it. I’m working on rebalancing my schedule so I can reliably always get these posts out in the morning, so bear with me over the next couple of weeks as I do that, and after that the posting schedule should be pretty much back to normal.
I haven’t posted the morning charts that I do for Daily Video Service subscribers at theartofchart.net here for a while so I’ll do that this morning for those of you that aren’t just trading equity indices. Trading on ES has been pretty tedious lately but TF is looking interesting here, and the other main futures I chart in detail – DX, CL, NG, GC & ZB have all been pretty interesting to trade the last few months. If you are trading ZB, DX or NG in particular I would suggest that you have a close look at those charts, and watch the accompanying 10 minute pre-market video, which you can see here. On days when I make these videos available (once a week or so) I post them before the open on my twitter (@shjackcharts), so if you don’t want to wait, that’s the best place to find them.
I’ve been having a very intense week and it’s been a struggle to get everything done. I’m hoping to get back to my normal routine tomorrow.
I was saying on Tuesday morning that the key support level to watch was rising wedge support on RUT, and very interesting things have been happening there. The rising wedge has broken down and then the double top on RUT has also broken down. The target is in the right area for a 38.2% fib retrace of the rising wedge and RUT is a very technical instrument. This may well make target and in that case the bears are still in the game here, and we should see at least some downside on SPX while this is playing out on RUT. RUT daily chart:
The tape on ES/SPX has been really dull for a few months now. Usually when this kind of volatility compression happens we get a proportionate expansion in one direction or the other afterwards which restores the balance, but we haven’t seen that yet and I’m considering the possibility that may not have happened so far because it’s not going to happen at all. If I struggled with insomnia I’m sure I would appreciate the tape we’ve been seeing in the afternoons lately, but I don’t, so these have been wasted on me.
In order to flip the trend back to bullish the bulls need to wake up enough buyers to deliver a definite close over the daily middle band. They failed to manage that yesterday, and at the time of writing I’m not optimistic about their chances of managing it today. If they do manage a close back above the middle band in coming days they will then need a confirming close above on the following day. SPX daily chart:
