Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Testing Support Hard

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My expectations for the bears yesterday weren’t high, but they put in a decent showing, and they have a chance today and tomorrow to deliver some extremely overdue retracement. Tomorrow is the only day this week that leans bearish historically, in part or mainly because it is the frequently bearish last trading day of the month. Obviously Thursday leans bullish as the first day of the month.

The main chart that I’m watching here is the TF chart, and a decent quality H&S has formed there looking for the 1307 area on a sustained break below yesterday’s low at 1327.50. Since I capped that chart TF has backtested the weekly pivot, completed the H&S pattern and is now testing the neckline. Unless TF breaks back over the weekly pivot at 1335.8, my working assumption is that the H&S will play out. TF Dec 60min chart:

161129 AM TF Dec 60min

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Splodgeness Abounds

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I christened a new TA setup in yesterday’s Chart Chat and I’ve clipped out the beginning of that to show what I was saying on the ES/SPX, NQ/NDX and TF/RUT charts then. I’m not certain that this innovation will guarantee my elevation to the TA Hall of Fame, but at the least it was funny and you can see that clip here:-) – The Springheel Splodge revelation.

As I am saying in the clip, the bears have something to prove here in terms of showing that this might be a two way market, but there is a retracement coming at some point that should retrace this triangle thrust back to the 2168-70 area and possibly lower. I talk in more detail about the short term setup in the video I recorded this morning. The charts below are the ES, NQ & TF charts I posted for members at theartofchart.net this morning.

ES Dec 60min chart:

161128 AM ES Dec 60min

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Happy Thanksgiving

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The holiday tape has defeated the nice looking retracement setup at the start of the week. There should still be at least some retracement over the next few days, but after a holding like a champ until late yesterday afternoon the decent resistance trendline on RUT finally broke. What there is of the remainder of the week is low volume holiday tape, so it may well be that we won’t see much of interest on the indices before next week, and Monday and Tuesday both lean bullish historically. RUT 60min chart:

161123 RUT 60min

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Every Silver Lining Has A Cloud

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The SPX high this morning was 0.09 handles under the ATH, so I’m treating the bull flag target at that retest as made. That’s the good news for bulls and it may well be the high point of the week on SPX and RUT, though NDX is looking toppy here too, though less obviously testing serious resistance at the high this morning.

The 60min charts on all three are leaning towards seeing some well overdue retracement starting in this area, and if seen that may well dominate the rest of the week. There is also a possible RSI5 / NYMO sell signal brewing here on the SPX daily chart, which I’m watching with interest. SPX daily chart:

161121 SPX Daily

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TGIF

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It’s been a long week & I’m very happy it’s Friday. I’m out most of today so just a quick post before I go.

Not expecting any real fireworks today. ES/SPX on the thrust up from that triangle and has reached the minimum target at a new swing high. There is an open target at a retest of the all time high on SPX, and the high so far today was just four handles below that, but it doesn’t have to be hit now. ES Dec 60min chart:

161118AM ES Dec 60min

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