Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Backtesting the Triangle

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It’s been a boring day, but what has been happening is that the triangle / bull pennant that broke up yesterday is doing the usual triangle sequence of backtesting the break before the triangle thrust up. After the triangle thrust up ends of course it’s then 90%+ probable that the thrust is fully retraced back to this backtest low.

So is the backtest finished? Maybe, though normally it would go a bit deeper. It may need a little lower before the triangle thrust begins. When the thrust does begin I’d be expecting to see at least a full retest of the all time high on SPX. ES Dec 60min chart:

161116-I ES Dec 60min

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The Triangles Break Up

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Apologies for the late post today. My wife has been unwell and I’ve been juggling various priorities today.

SPX has spent the last couple of days forming triangles on both ES and SPX and the triangles have now broken up. This should deliver at least a retest of the current swing high at 2182.30 and when seen that will set a possible 60min sell signal brewing. It could reverse there, though my lean would be to then see a retest of the all time high at 2193.81, as I also have a larger fixed flag target there. Hopefully by then the current move will be better defined with an identifiable pattern. SPX 60min chart:

161115-I SPX 60min

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Volume Spike and Triangles

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There were two back to back volume spikes on the daily SPX chart last week and I’m looking for that significant high. We could see it here but unless SPX can break down through the 2154 (2150 ES) area support that held on Friday the short term pattern setup favors a retest of the current rally high in what might then be the second high of a small double top: SPX daily chart:

161114 SPX Daily Volume Spike

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Knife Fight at 2150

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Just a quick post today as I’m not feeling well and my ability to multitask declines sharply when I’m feeling under the weather. I’ve mainly been calling the turns on the epic knife fight at 2150 today and if you aren’t following my twitter you’ll have missed that. I’m going to just use the SPX 5min chart today as it shows the short term inflection point here clearly. Price needs to pick the direction, this pattern favors the bulls 70/30 but bears could still break this down.

The pattern from the close before the election on SPX was a rising channel that broke down with a possible double top setup that had a higher risk that usual of developing into a bull flag because the second high was lower. With the intraday low today a perfect triangle has been established that in this context would normally be a bull pennant looking for a retest of the rally high. If bears can’t break triangle support and deliver the 30% option, that’s very likely exactly what this is. If we do see that rally high retest I’d be looking for that on Monday and would be expecting that to likely be the second high of a double top.

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Wounded Mammoths

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SPX has gone a bit higher than Stan was expecting this morning, but there was a big volume spike yesterday that strongly supports his expectation that a significant high is being made here, and that we may well retrace much or all of this powerful post election rally. These don’t always deliver, and I haven’t had a chance to run through performance over the last twenty years yet, but I’ve put these down as 85% odds of a significant high within three days and I think that’s conservative. The only fail I can recall offhand in the last few years was in March this year. SPX daily chart:

161110 SPX Daily Volume Spike

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