No backtest of the weekly pivot at 2196.25 yesterday and that’s still a possibility today. As long as that holds as support the next main target is a test of the all time high. ES Dec 60min chart:
Slope of Hope Blog Posts
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Gravy In The Gap
‘Gravy In the Gap’ is a day where the real action took place overnight and the day that followed is relatively muted. We could see an interesting day on equity indices today but it seems unlikely to be as interesting as the action overnight, unless we see a trend down day, that on the setup I’m seeing here would be surprising.
I said on Friday morning that it was possible that ES was evolving into a larger decline pattern, but that I was leaning against it. It did evolve into a larger pattern which was a falling channel and I posted that for subscribers at theartofchart.net on Saturday and we were looking for at least some more downside in the public Chart Chat yesterday. ES went a bit lower last night to 2179, two ticks above my lower double top target at 2178.5. The channel broke up later on and the next obvious target is a retest of 2214, with support at the weekly pivot at 2196.25. ES Dec 60min chart: (more…)
The Unbearable Lightness of ES
The alternate asymmetric double top targets on ES were at 2178.5 or 2181, and the current low at 2184 is a fairly close miss of both. The pattern setup here though is suggesting that the retracement low is probably already in. Hopefully some of you saw me mention that on twitter just after the open.
The pattern on ES was a very nice falling megaphone that broke up on the opening spike. This is the kind of setup that strongly suggests that the low is in barring a possible retest to set up a bottoming pattern of some kind. Is it possible that the megaphone is evolving into a larger pattern? Yes, but historically it would be a bad idea to hold your breath waiting for another leg down that wasn’t just into a low retest or marginal new low. ES Dec 60min chart:
The Three Little Bear Patterns
Bears managed to do some damage yesterday and the retracement I was projecting is in progress. I was calling the final pattern targets on my premarket video that I posted for Daily Video Service subscribers at theartofchart.net this morning before the open. The charts I was showing in the video are below and I’m looking at where each index is respectively in terms of their pattern target.
The final pattern on ES is a double top looking for 2178.5 on a sustained break below 2196.25. The current LOD is at 2187.50, so there still should be another nine handles of downside to make the target. That may be tomorrow though of course. ES Dec 60min chart:
Lost In Translation
I mentioned last night on twitter that at the end of the day there was an unusual situation where ES was holding the weekly pivot there as solid support, and TF had established the weekly pivot as solid resistance. This is a rarity and can’t last long unless they just chop sideways together.
ES built on that weekly pivot support to make a new all time high this morning. Was that bullish? No, as there is nothing inherently bullish about a high retest. Every double top setup requires one and they aren’t bullish. The thing I was watching was what TF was doing with the weekly pivot there ………ES Dec 60min chart:
