Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

SPX Target Registered

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Excerpted from the May 10th edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole

While I am a gold bug, I am not a narrowly focused bug. In the markets I want to increase capital, where ever that can be achieved. The last several months of portfolio diversification have provided a solid increase. But it is time now to rebalance and tighten the focus. That is illustrated in much more detail in the segments that followed this one, in NFTRH 914.

SPX Target Registered

I seriously had no clue that SPX was even close to target, let alone realized it had hit the 7400 measured target yesterday, until I took a look yesterday afternoon. Though upside targets are seldom stop signs (at least mine aren’t, they are objectives laid out well ahead of time), it does give me a bit of pause.

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SPX/Gold Ratio

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Rally Approaches Anticipated Decision Point

The rally in the SPX/Gold ratio is nearing a critical decision point

From a post on the precious metals and the “new macro” in January:

The 3 Snowmen and the Precious Metals

I think the US will come back from this, both to its senses and to a sounder financial system. Gold will be at the center of this. The stock market will not. It was the beneficiary of the old macro. Unfortunately, a vast majority is operating as if we are still in Kansas (AKA the old macro). We’re not there anymore.

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Macro View as FOMC Week Begins

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A macro view was discussed to close out NFTRH 912 as FOMC week begins…

Excerpted from the latest edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole:

Fears about “inflation” the war-driven rise in prices of certain commodities and their knock-on effects have bounced Treasury yields a bit. The 10-2 yield curve has flattened under this pressure as the market weighs whether or not this will manifest in a more hawkish Fed.

Graph displaying historical US Treasury yields, including 30-year, 10-year, 5-year, and 2-year yields, along with the 10-year to 2-year yield curve. Highlights trends from 1980 to 2026.
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Uranium Normal During War Drama

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Now Resuming its Bull Market

The Uranium sector is breaking upward from a bull flag/corrective consolidation channel

While some stocks went up (especially in the Oil/Gas and Fertilizer/Ag sectors) and many went down during the worst of the war related headlines (and in software, the AI-mageddon hype), stocks in the Uranium sector maintained an orderly correction/consolidation that began pre-war.

The sector finally came to a technical “buy” as it generally tested the uptrending 200 day moving averages (orange line on the chart below) and maintained its major uptrend. When is an optimum time to buy a market or stock? During a correction within an intact uptrend, that’s when.

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Oil, Deceleration & Crack Up Boom?

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von Mises Crack Up Boom could follow the negative economic effects of war

There is currently much hype in the media about a hawkish Fed because the media wrongheadedly anticipates rate hikes due to the “inflation” being caused by rising oil prices (directly and indirectly). Furthermore, CME traders, often little more than a wind sock indicating current sentiment as opposed to accurate forward forecasters, have completely backed off their previous view of rate cuts, and now increasingly favor a rate hike this year.

Perfect!

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