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This post is prompted by a post I saw on X, highlighting a TA on CNBC who noted the inverted H&S that HUI is establishing in ratio to SPX. The follow-on discussion included some fretting that the contrarian negatives of being highlighted on CNBC are a clear and present danger.
(more…)I don’t make a habit of pumping the most frustrating stock sector on the planet just for the sake of it. I have made a habit of discussing why, since 2003, the macro market backdrop has been adversarial to gold stocks much more often than not. By extension, internal indicators like the HUI/Gold Ratio have rightly been long-term bearish.
(more…)“We are pointed toward recessionary dynamics”… well, no shit Sherlock.
Claudia Sahm talks about the “big lever still to pull” by the Fed. That being a plethora of interest rate cuts. Sahm talks about the unemployment rate, and other things indicative of recession. Article with video:
So here is the thing. During a bull market or very bullish phase, indicators give the all-clear. Come on in, the water’s fine! Investors are always going to be complacent and market/economic signals at least stable (or quite positive) at market tops. It’s the way the markets work. Recall 2000 and 2007. As Steven King would say, “nope, nothin’ wrong here.”
This chart from MacroMicro illustrates the point. During a bull phase in the markets things are fine… fine… fine… and then suddenly, out of nowhere, NOT fine. So pictures like this tell us what we already know; the market is bullish and the waters are calm.
(more…)Excerpted from last weekend’s edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 815:
A subscriber sent me analysis calling for a “Monster [bullish] reversion trade for the ages” based on the extreme under-performance of the Equal Weight SPX (RSP) to the Headline SPX. The writer’s conclusion is that after such an extreme divergence the spring back in RSP vs. SPY/SPX is strong and the broader market is the place to be for out-performance.
Can’t argue with that.
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