If the 2yr yield is leading the 3 mo. T-bill yield (it is), the 10-3 mo. yield curve will follow the 10-2 yield curve
I’ve used this chart repeatedly to show the bear markets that occurred in 2000 and 2007, following 2yr/T-bill yield divergences.

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I’ve used this chart repeatedly to show the bear markets that occurred in 2000 and 2007, following 2yr/T-bill yield divergences.

It is one of the most interesting aspects of precious metals investing/trading. This buy/sell for the wrong reasons phenomenon. Many years ago I came up with the graphic below to illustrate how advisers, analysts and their herds focus on the wrong reasons for being bullish on gold miners.
(more…)I’ll begin this post by noting that I love charts. I began my market journey using charts, and I have noted over the years that technical analysis is a great tool to have in a trader’s or investor’s tool box. So many times over the years has an existing trend kept me patient despite a shorter-term move to the contrary. So many times have breakdowns of technical parameters kept me from catastrophic losses, or holds of said parameters kept me in the game for large profits. In short, I am one of these guys…

Without digging up too much theory and analysis from the past, let’s simply note that gold has more counter-cyclical character than most any other asset other than Treasury bonds and the US dollar. That is because when economic stress increases (and little about today’s August Payrolls report indicates otherwise) and cyclical, risk ‘on’ markets start to react to that stress, refuge-seeking herds tend to flock into the world’s reserve currency (to the extent the world has not yet de-Dollarized) and US Treasury bonds (to the extent that the world has not yet de-Treasuryized).
(more…)We know the story. A disgusting virus spread across the world…
