All this chop for all these months is exhausting, but the bigger picture is marvelously enticing. This one simple chart of the /ES (4-hour bars) has the potential for the trade of the year. All it has to do is slip below that green support level.
This month is the best month I’ve ever had. I’m not trying to brag. I’m just human and when trades don’t work out, it is in my nature to dwell on the losses. As such, I need to also celebrate the wins if for nothing else than to maintain my mental health. I’m going on vacation next week that I feel I’ve earned. I’ll probably still comment here and there, but won’t be doing much else than laying on a beach. So, hooray! Ok. Now that that is out of my system, it’s time to step back, do a post-mortem on my trades and plan the next ones.
Risk in gold, the miners and especially silver was nosebleed high back in January. So much so that I added puts on SLV (half expecting to get hammered) literally the day before the silver price imploded. Ah, luck. Gotta have it once in a while.
From the start of 2026, we (NFTRH and its clients) have been well aware of first the risk, and then the projected “multi-month” correction that tagged on to that risk. We have done the work to be positioned appropriately. But now, with the Semiconductor mania (I’ve released my final two positions, ASML and ALAB) in full swing, Semi (left) is gold (right) circa January 2026.
(more…)