Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

I Do NOT Miss FX Trading

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Years ago, I tried my hand at forex trading. It can be alluring since, with 100x leverage, one can accrue amazing profits very quickly. Of course, what typically happens – and what happened with me – is that one can also blow one’s entire account up very quickly too. The combination of quick swings and lots of leverage can be lethal.

Looking at today’s EUR/USD action – – even just for the past few hours – – reminds me how little I miss FX trading and how I will never, ever return to it.

Ever.

0326-euro

Cypriot Butterfly, European Hurricane (by Bob Kudla)

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Is the Cyprus bank deposit confiscation move the "butterfly flapping her wings which ultimately causes a worldwide  hurricane"?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-21814325

The Euro elite and the IMF sought to punish the horrendous bank lending practices of Cypriot Banks by taxing their depositors, and not make the owners of the banks take a haircut, in order for the government to get a bailout.  Now if you are a depositor in Spain or Italy and you know a bailout is required, would you keep your money in a bank account?

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Yin & Yang, Dow & Gold

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As human beings we try to intellectualize and get to the bottom of
things.  We seek to find meaning in everything.  There must be a reason for what is happening at any given time.

Take for example the Dow’s stellar performance and gold’s lousy
performance even as monetary policy has gone reckless on a global
scale.  This goes against everything that humans who deal with the
financial markets think they know.  But what if we are just getting back
into symmetry?

dow.gold

Dow & Gold, daily chart

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Hedging The Dow At Its All-Time High

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The Dow Hits An All-Time High

With the Dow Jones Industrial Average hitting all-time highs recently (albeit, not in inflation-adjusted dollars), in this post, we'll look at the current costs of hedging the Dow component stocks against greater-than-20% drops. We'll also look at the optimal puts1 to hedge a position in the Dow-tracking ETF DIA against the same decline threshold.

Two Reasons To Track Hedging Costs

The first reason to pay attention to hedging costs is if you're considering hedging. But another reason is that we've seen some examples of stocks with high optimal hedging costs underperform those with lower optimal hedging costs. It will be interesting to revisit these Dow component stocks later this year and see if that pattern holds up.

Hedging Costs Of The Dow Components And DIA

The table below shows the costs, as of Tuesday's close, of hedging
each Dow component, and the Dow-tracking ETF (DIA), against
greater-than-20% declines over the next several months, using optimal puts.

Symbol

Name

Cost of Protection (as % of Position value)

AA

Alcoa Inc. Common Stock

3.11%***

AXP

American Express

1.72%***

BA

Boeing

1.30%*

BAC

Bank of America

3.20%*

CAT

Caterpillar

1.75%*

CSCO

Cisco Systems

2.50%*

CVX

Chevron

1.37%**

DD

E.I. du Pont de Nemours

1.71%***

DIS

Walt Disney

2.55%***

GE

General Electric

1.61%**

HD

Home Depot

1.04%*

HPQ

Hewlett-Packard

3.19%*

IBM

International Business Machines

1.12%***

INTC

Intel

2.14%***

JNJ

Johnson & Johnson

0.68%***

JPM

JP Morgan Chase

1.92%**

KO

Coca-Cola

0.65%*

MCD

McDonald's

0.65%**

MMM

3M

1.14%***

MRK

Merck

1.64%***

MSFT

Microsoft

1.83%***

PFE

Pfizer

1.03%**

PG

Procter & Gamble

1.17%***

T

AT&T

1.21%***

TRV

Travelers

1.80%***

UNH United HealthGroup, Inc. 2.10%**

UTX

United Technologies

1.17%*

VZ

Verizon Communications

1.11%***

WMT

Wal-Mart Stores

0.66%**

XOM

Exxon Mobil

1.25%***

DIA

SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF

0.64%**

*Based on optimal puts expiring in August

**Based on optimal puts expiring in September

***Based on optimal puts expiring in October.

The Optimal Puts To Hedge DIA

These were the optimal puts to hedge 1000 shares of DIA against a greater-than-20% drop as of Tuesday's close.

1Optimal puts are the ones that will give you the level of protection you want at the lowest possible cost. Portfolio Armor
uses an algorithm developed by a finance Ph.D to sort through and
analyze all of the available puts for your stocks and ETFs, scanning for
the optimal ones. The screen capture below from the latest build of the soon-to-come 2.0 version of the
Portfolio Armor iOS app.