Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Now is Not the Time to be Getting the Yips

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The time to be getting afraid was when the market ramped and sentiment was pinging to over bullish after the Brexit sentiment reset to over bearish had sprung the rally. Now it is too late to start getting the willies because we have full frontal FOMC and the most disgusting, divisive and plain sad election of my lifetime; a lifetime filled with disgusting electoral choices.

Ooh, the economy is okay and inflation signals are bumping up… the Fed’s gonna raise rates in December! Trump might win and the market is gonna hate that!

Just calm down. If you are part of the herd you are supposed to be anxious now. It’s how markets work. If you are not part of the herd then it’s all good and it’s all in line with current plans. Or as NFTRH 419 noted with respect to the following chart…

The VIX is still tame despite the slow leak down by stocks. That is not bullish. Bullish is when people panic, buy already expensive downside insurance (buying volatility, puts, etc.), things get over bearish… and then they rip the thing the other way.

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Vix Analog

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As the VIX got pounded back into the sub-teens today, it occurred to me to compare the present activity to the period preceding the financial crisis. What I found was interesting. The chart below (click it for a much bigger version) shows 2003-2007 on the top and recent history on the bottom. You may notice a lot of similarities between the top and bottom, and I’ve drawn a red line at the top showing the equivalent of “right now”.

1024-vixcompare

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The Gold Manipulators Not Only Will Be Punished, They Have Been Punished

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I have not gone off the deep end and joined the “community” of boosters, promoters, pompom waving cheering squads and general cult figures who you can just tell not only want you to adore gold, but in some cases need you to act on your adoration and buy gold or gold stocks.  Read into that what you will, but the history of investors burned by the pitch, which tugs at peoples’ morals, sense of right and wrong and plain old common sense, is a long and storied one.

As in any market, you are the mark, the target, the food… unless you do the educational work to the degree required in order to have your own – not some expert’s – view on things.  That includes we would-be geniuses who think we can write for you and provide worthwhile information along the way in your decision making process.  The day I stop learning and working to be better is the day I stop doing this, and that’ll be the day they fit me for a pine box.

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Read and Listen to the Media, be a Day Late, Lot of Dollars Short

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Seriously, the longer I do this more intolerant I become with the whole financial media/services/advice complex.  Stoopid MSM headlines this morning…

Dollar holds gains as investors set their watches for jobs data (ooh, the tension mounts)

Markets counting down to big Jobs Friday (T-minus… to BIG Jobs)

Gold loses shine as Fed feelings lift dollar (blah blah blah…)

European stocks hemmed in with ECB minutes on deck (of course, there has to be a reason they’d be little changed; this one’s as good as any)

This is why the Stock Market’s complacency is about to end (tell me genius, do tell… )

Dow, S&P 500, bonds trade like a Fed rate hike isn’t cause to stress out (because it isn’t, Captain Obvious)

And that is just the MSM; factor in the opinion and propaganda from the blogosphere and the gold bug cult “community” and it’s no wonder people get confused.  I get email from very decent and intelligent people asking what I think is going on, what is going to happen.  It is obvious that the disparity of opinions (much of it stated confidently as virtual fact) flying around out there has people flummoxed (hey, that’s a word I’ve never written before, ever in my life).

But there is no ‘IS’.  There are only probabilities.  A good bit of the crap in the MSM and from the lesser lights in the blogging ecosystem speaks in definite terms because it is either trying to get eyeballs or it is pitching its dogma to its own gain.  On any given day it seems like a majority of the financial complex is hanging an ad in its window saying “come consume what I have to offer!  I’m right and here’s why…” and then the story changes for the MSM as it simply hangs new ads in its window the next day; and as for the lesser touts?

Why, they simply start reporting the news, as in… Thought bubble:  ‘Shit, I was wrong big time to be touting that trend even after it ended, but I need to figure out a spin…’ Stated publicly:  “Gold and Silver are in a correction and support looks to be in the…”

So tomorrow is “big Jobs” Friday.  Whoop de doo!  The Semiconductor Equipment sector gave its signal so many months ago.  Some people fought me on this, either knowingly (you know who you are) or from an expert’s perch, unknowingly.  Also, Brexit did not end the world, Europe is talking about tapering QE and things have held up just fine.

Now it’s “big Jobs” week.  The ultimate lagging data point will be reported tomorrow and if it goes over 200K (experts are forecasting 169k) there will be a cacophonous uproar.  But we will not be surprised because we had early, forward looking data months ago (which has already manifested in a big jobs recovery over the last few months).

I guess all I am saying is will you please tune down the cacophony?  It is unhealthy.

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