Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

I’m Gettin’ Nuttin’ for Christmas (by Fayssoux))

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Retail stocks have been a tear since the March lows.  Conventional wisdom in the financial media is that leaner inventories combined with firmer demand than anticipated will lead to a good holiday season for retailers.

I am skeptical on the latter point. Consumer confidence data has been trending down, which is not part of the bullish script.  Housing and employment are nagging problems.  Consumers are dubious on the sustainability of the recovery.  One tool I use for consumer research is Google Insights — you can track trends in search volume by topic, like, for instance, Neiman Marcus or Kmart or Sports Authority.

In each of those instances and in many others I ran, searches in October and early November in 2009 were less frequent than in 2008.  This is healthy happy bullish 2009 versus Lehman is melting, TARP is coming the world may end 2008.  Will search volumes predict a weaker than expected Black Friday and holiday selling season? I don't know, but if they do, retail stocks should see some air come out.  Should does not mean will in the environment.  But one catalyst for a leg down is weaker than expected sales in mainstream retailers.

Xrt

Patriotism and Iconoclasm (by Fayssoux)

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There are many who question the direction the U.S. has taken
whose patriotism does not seem to be questioned.  Take Bill Gross in his November commentary:

The US and most G-7
countries have been significantly and artificially influenced by asset
appreciation for decades.  Stocks and
home prices went up – then consumers liquefied and spent the capital gains by borrowing
against them or selling outright.  Growth
in other words, was influenced by upside by leverage, securitization and the belief
that wealth creation was a function of asset appreciation as opposed to the production
of goods and services

Or watch this James McMurtry video – the message is similar,
just in a different format (note rail images, fitting for today)

Skepticism, a critical perspective and questioning the decisions
of “the powers that be” are certainly not inconsistent with patriotism.