Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

North Korea Propaganda

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One aspect of the bear market that I anticipate over the next few years is, somewhere near its bottom, something really awful happening in the world. That "awful" could take many forms – – a major new war, a nuclear terrorist attack, or some other horrifying event. In the 1937-1942 analog, the awful event was the attack of Pearl Harbor and America's subsequent entry into the war. The market bottomed out a few months after that, and it more or less moved higher for the next quarter of a century.

Sometimes I wonder what country (if it is a country, as opposed to a group) could be involved in such an event. One clear candidate is the paranoid and isolated state of North Korea, which makes Imperial Japan look sensible by comparison. This country has fascinated me for years, and I genuinely hope the day comes that its people are liberated from the evil oppression of its leadership.

As isolated as it is, North Korea offers an unwitting peek inside its madness via its propaganda posters. Most of them, naturally, are designed to illustrate how wicked the United States is.

0203-dogs 

The text in the poster translates (in the normally catchy style of PRNK propoganda) as “Though the dog barks, the procession moves on!” The dog, by the way, isn't seen as the cute little ragamuffin that someone like me would observe, but as a vile and dirty creature.

Of course, much of the propaganda comes across as curiously wacky in its purpose of compelling what is seen as beneficial social behavior.

0203-goats 

For the above picture, we have the text “Let’s extensively raise goats in all families!”, which is an ethic I actually could find myself sharing with the North Koreans.

Well, a new market day is upon us, so I'll turn my attention to other matters. Go get 'em.

Market Goggles (by Biffermas)

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Mustard
seeds aren’t sprouting… 

The banks
are effectively insolvent… 

The job
market continues its plummet…

Housing
is facing further inventory spikes…

The
American consumer has changed habits… 

And
the stock market is enjoying an historic rally…


This_market_is_looking_good
 

I
read practically every entry on the Slope forum while trolling for comical
snippets.  One assumption I see
frequently made is the equation of the general macroeconomic reality with the
markets, i.e. one equals the other.  The
economy is not the market, and the market is not the economy.  They are two separate entities that
influence one another but can remain disconnected for long periods of time, as
2009 should clearly demonstrate.  

Tonight, after drinking a few glasses of cheap liquidity, feel free to
take Ms. Market home when the bar closes (or Ms. SRS), but realize she’s not the economy and might look very different tomorrow.  Your trading, and your mornings will be far more enjoyable.

The Pool Hall I Loved as a Kid is Now a 7-11

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In Simon Jonson’s excellent Powerpoint presentation “Economic Recovery and the Coming Financial Crisis,” he argues that financial sector compensation and flawed  incentives were integral to causing the event, and that so far, the crisis has solved nothing (“the surviving oligarchs are stronger”). He copied a chart from the Wall Street Journal showing how distorted financial sector pay is to the rest of the economy in the long view (see below).  The Wall Street Journal reports tonight that 2009 bonuses will be at record levels, exceeding 2007.


 In other words, the people, companies and distorted incentive systems that managed to drive the financial system to the brink of collapse have not changed at all.  Extraordinary costs have been borne by our society (and our children), yet it is business as usual on Wall Street. 


The Greenspan put has morphed into the larger and more expansive and more morally hazardous Bernanke put, the people who did not see the crisis are selling hard that all the “toxic” problems have been remediated, and Washington is paralyzed by the power and access of the ever stronger financial oligarchs.

 

Johnson suggests that in the big picture it will end badly.  Who knows, but the compensation issue is not going to go down well with a weary public.


Pay2 

The Cloying Fog

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I'm a realist. I try to see things as they are. Given the nature of the world we live in – – or at least the United States – – this puts my disposition at odds with a meaningful portion of the population. I'm not so much a permabear as a permarealist, but the effect is often the same.

Decades ago, when I worked at Apple, they would spend all kinds of money on "inspirational" speakers and expensive "corporate bonding" outings. As Apple fellow Alan Kay once remarked back then, "What Apple needs is fewer off-sites and more insights." How right he was.

Last night, I finished Bright-Sided, whose subtitle pretty much tells you what the book is about:

0113-bright_sided 

 I thought the book was terrific. I enjoyed it, and I strongly recommend it.

Given the doe-eyed, botox-based, smiley-faced culture that some Americans strive to create, this book was truly refreshing. Our nation has produced a hoard of both religious and secular charlatans whose mission is to separate you from your money, but whose ostensible purpose is to teach you The Secret, create "abudance" in your life, and giving you the power to "manifest" anyone and anything you desire. It's a giant, steaming pile of crap.

As the line from Hannah and Her Sisters goes: "If Jesus came back and saw what they were doing in His name, He'd never stop throwing up." Amen to that.

I've seen this Osteen character's books now and then, with his curly-haired mullet and pearly-white teeth, but I never wanted to pick one up. Having read Bright-Sided, which mentions Osteen's Lakewood Church prominently, I was curious, so I went to their web site. This, seriously, was the first thing I saw:

0113-comes 

 

Well! No wonder it's such a popular place.

Seriously. Buy the book. Embrace reality for what it is. Make the occasionally bits of happiness that truly do appear in life genuine, deep, and memorable. Mindless positive thinking is an empty lie.