Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Grey Swans

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I wanted to take an opportunity to take stock of where this rally is in relation to the possible all time high retests that I was talking about in my post on 14th June just before the 2022 low was made. I have done three main posts looking at this and a possible news background that might help deliver those high retests from the decent looking bull flags that have formed in 2022 on all four of the main US indices that I watch from those all time highs

These are those three posts which are worth another look as there is more in them than I will be reviewing in this post.

Through A Glass Darkly – 14th Jun

Blood In The Streets – 17th Jun

The Evolving Markets – 8th Jul

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Still In The Inflection Point

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If you missed our free public Chart Chat at theartofchart.net on Sunday then you can see the recording here or on our monthly free webinars page here.

In that Chart Chat we were saying that a retest of the rally high was likely early this week, and we saw that yesterday. SPX has a daily RSI 5 sell signal brewing, a fixed hourly RSI 14 sell signal, and the trendline setup for a reversal here looks very nice indeed. The next step if we are going to see a reversal here would be a break of the short term rising support trendline now in the 4105 area, and ideally the formation of an H&S at the possible neckline in the 4080 area.

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The Only Logical Conclusion

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Listen to the famous ones. Listen to those on television. Your Tom Lees. Your Jim Cramers. Your Cathie Woods. It’s all the same. “The bear market is over”………”New highs by year-end”……….”Buy now at a discount.” Personally, I think they’re goddamn insane and have been lulled into a deep sleep over the past thirteen years. Draw your own conclusion. I’ve certainly drawn mine.

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In The Inflection Point

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In my last post on Tuesday I was talking about ideally seeing a higher high on this rally to set up divergence and we have since seen that on SPX, NDX and IWM. That has set possible daily RSI 5 and hourly RSI 14 sell signals brewing on SPX and brought SPX closer to the ideal IHS area at the June high at 4177.

The distance from the SPX 45dma reached a nosebleed level at 6.19% though that doesn’t mean as much after a strong bear move. Still a very good place to be looking for a retracement though.

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