I was looking at the equity indices on Sunday, and there were decent looking short term bull flags across the equity indices. These were a good indicator for a rally high retest next but they only break up about 70% of the time. The rest of the time they break down or evolve into larger flags and these broke down.
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Rolling Over
SPX has reached a peak of 9.57% over the 45dma on this run. That’s likely to be the highest reading as the 45dma is now rising significantly every day, and has risen 40 handles this week. We should now see a retracement that reaches at least close to the 45dma, now at 3971, and may go below it. Depending on the time taken to deliver that retracement I’d be leaning towards a target area 4000-50 as a very rough guide.
(more…)Previous Market Leaders (by XerxesTraderGF)
Per Tim’s request, I’m sending content your way. I’m know I’m no TNRev, but I thought I’d note some interesting action on the prior market leaders. They still hold a lot of weight in the indices (especially AAPL), so it is worth looking at which direction they are set up to move.
AAPL:
Monster Island Reversal
Air Getting Very Thin Here
I was talking on Friday about how every so often we see market moves that make no sense, but are technically sound, and go ahead and happen despite making no sense. I was calling these grey swans and as it happens there was a very good example of this that day.
On my daily 45dma chart at the intraday high SPX reached a level 9.1% above the 45dma, higher than both of the highs made after the 2020 low at 8.7% and 8.4%. That was something I didn’t expect to see, but here we are.
SPX daily 45dma chart:
