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This is a very strong day for asset prices, with basically anything that has a ticker symbol being in the green. I’d like to direct your attention to precious metals, which have been soaring for over two months now. First, I’d like to point out that gold is approaching the underbelly of a trendline, which may prove to be an important inflection point of resistance.
I am not seeking to be critical of another analyst (who I actually know nothing about), but instead want to critique the article based on its stated views, using only charts.
I am a chart guy, after all, and so I take notice when analysts use nominal charts in a vacuum to form conclusions (especially alarming ones) rather than using an integrated technical and macro fundamental approach. That’s because I am a chart guy whose technical abilities (in a vacuum) are limited because TA itself is limited.
(more…)I saw an offhanded comment from TNR about shorting copper. I hadn’t looked at /HG in ages, but I am inclined to agree!
Reference 2022: The Golden Year as published on December 30th, 2021.
It’s been touch and go all year but the gold price could be shaking out in support of the admittedly sensational title of that article. Let’s take a checkup, starting with a paragraph from the year ago article.
Pardon the promotional sound of the title. I realize it, and I’m putting it up there anyway. There is a time for temperance and there is a time for promotion. Too many in the gold sphere forget about that first thing when risk is high, and in August, 2020 it was at nosebleed levels.
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If you have tuned out inflationist gold bugs since mid-2020 you are now in position to capitalize, unlike scores of inflation bugs who’d already bought (and likely sold into tax loss season, 2022).
Readers of nftrh.com have seen this space write many times how gold is not about inflation. At least not primarily. That compounds with the gold miners, which leverage gold’s standing within the inflated (and periodically deflated) macro. The gold mining sector is not about inflation. As in 2003-2008 the gold miners can rise during an inflationary phase, but as in Q4, 2008 they would then be summarily executed due to poor accumulated fundamentals.
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